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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/25

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Buzz Aldrin Bavasi

12:35

How worried is Zips about Roki going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

moderately

Big Fan

12:35

Happy early birthday! 47 is my favorite prime number - it's gonna be amazing.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I can't imagine 47 is going to be amazing

Oaktown Blues

12:35

Also can you remind me what ZiPS Update represents? Is it a re-projection of 2025, but with the information ZiPS has learned during 2025 incorporated? Is it full-gat ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

ZiPS update is the rest of season projection (which is update) plus whatever's in the bucket already

12:36

FanGraphs can't automatically do the full-fat, best version of ZiPS of practical reasons

Even with a new PC build, the quickest I can project a full season is about 18 hours of computing time over two PCs

There's a lot of linear algebra!

Matt

12:37

Hey Dan was does Zips say Judge’s 90th percentile outcome looks like this season based on his start?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I don't really have percentiles set up that way IN season

Brent

12:37

When you run your initial full projections before the season starts, what kind of processing power does that take? Are you running it locally or do you get access to an NSA super computer?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Running it locally. I batch run the hitters and the pitchers separately on two PCs.

12:38

The slower one, my media server which uses an i7-8700K is now out of that mix though, and now the 5900X is the slower of the PC and can do the pitchers in about 18 hours. My 9950x3D can do the hitters in about 11 hours.

James

12:38

Is Seattle cooked already?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Cooked, no, but the onions are softening up

Justin

12:39

What all do you think goes into the consistent advantage that you have by playing home games? Do you think we'll ever see things like sending probable pitchers to the next city a few days early to get them "Settled in"?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Comfort and familiarity is important. The small last bat advantage. The very slight favoritism from umpires

it doesn't add up to a huge amount, but it's SOMETHING

I don't think settling in would have the value in that way

Guest

12:40

who says they can't be preposterous? ; p

Dan Szymborski

12:40

True

12:41

The zombie runners are pretty preposterous

Houzer

12:41

its time for ABS full time. Leave the umps out there to make base-running calls, but get ABS to calls ball and strikes. One big reason is so we can end all this pitch framing pageantry

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I'm all for this

Now, one can argue it's not good to remove a skillset, but since it's a skillset in basically selling something to a fallible rule enforcer, I don't think it needs to be a thing

Guest

12:42

Will Chris Sale and/or Jacob DeGrom be the big names at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

CHris Sale is likely. I don't think deGrom is

Justin

12:44

Does anybody come to mind when i say "who are some relatively unknown relievers who strike you as guys who will be "promoted" from middle relief into setup roles down the stretch due to seeming like suddenly-outstanding pitchers"?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Gabe Speier? Though one could say he's already getting higher leverage innings

12:45

Bennett Sousa?

Justin

12:45

Do you think the Orioles will sell enough pieces that Basallo will get a cup of coffee this year? In some ways, his AAA performance is almost more impressive than Anthony's, and he's younger.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think ti's very POSSIBLE

Jim Basketballhoop

12:45

Is the forfeit/concession solution just a mercy rule?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Quitting is all on how you sell it

Jeremy

12:45

Rather than giving teams the opportunity to resigning a game, a la chess, should MLB have a mercy rule, a la Little League?