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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/12/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think it's one of those things where the gain from their package is arguably not worth the risk

12:47

Because once both teams execute the trade, then REPEATING the trade the other way around also looks like a really good trade at that point

Justin

12:47

Is there any trait that you've found that tends to allow players to consistently outplay their projections and/or "peripheral stats"? i suppose that if you did find such a thing, most systems would simply start to bake that thing in to the model, right? I may remember reading something about pitchers out-pitching their peripherals once their GB rate gets around 60% but i could be wrong.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

A statistical one? Not really; I spend a lot of time trying to find non-randomized errors in the projections.

12:48

Guys who are injured is probably one of them, but I think that's always going to be a problem predicting those guys no matter what you do

Guest

12:48

not sure why [team] would do this? well, keep in mind team I'm imagining the team I'm fan of making this deal with is very, very dumb

Dan Szymborski

12:48

One disappointing thing is that dumb teams have gotten so smart relative to dumb teams 25 years ago

12:50

I would call the White Sox in 2025 and average front office in 1995

oklahoma brave

12:50

the braves won’t trade Sale because they won’t punt next year imo

Dan Szymborski

12:50

That's a very real possibility

BUT\

12:51

Double A is *not* usually queasy about an unpopular trade he sees a benefit from

Alex

12:51

Who will the Phillies trade for to improve their outfield? I know they need bullpen/reliever help but they also need run support. CF & LF are black holes 80% of the time

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Nobody

Guest

12:52

Has ZIPS' opinion of Matt Shaw improved post 2nd call up?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Not really since ZiPS alreayd liked him

George

12:52

If Abrams is destined to be moved off the dirt, should the Nats be looking to move one or multiple of the Lile, Hassell, Call, and Young group at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

As always, it depends on the exact offers and what the penannt race looks like at the moment

tomorrow

12:52

Postseason starts tomorrow, who is the favorite to win the WS?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Tigers

David

12:52

How does ZiPS updated projection deal with pitchers recovering from injuries? Does it matter? Glasnow, Darvish, King etc, are all recovering from unclear diagnosis, are they expected to come back from pre-injury form or is there more variance?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Poorly

12:53

ZiPS can broadly understand injuries in a general sense

but the exact specifics are really hard for a model to comprehend

Pkpkpkpk

12:53

Can we get some book recs? Any kind of book. I feel like I read in one of these that you read 100 books a year or some massive number like that.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Here's one I rarely see mentioned: Herman Wouk's The Lawgiver

12:55

Joanna Kevada's Zed

12:56

I'm still not sure I actually like Cursed Bunny translation (Chung Bora), but it was really out there and ifferent

Mayo

12:56

Seems like Mayo is getting buried with limited PT while stinking up the joint. What kind of plan is that for him to succeed?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Not a good one

I think the O's are currently caught between two very separate impulses

Greg

12:56

For what n is the gap between the Rockies and the 29th most analytically advanced team equal to the gap between the 1st most analytically advanced team and the nth most analytically advanced team?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

For one, the Rockies are not the least analytically advanced team

12:57

They do have a team, though without the resources of the more all-in teams

Jeff in Jersey

12:57

I love that you picked the Tigers over the Dodgers as WS favorites.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Big Pitcher Energy takes an outsized bite in the playoffs and the Dodgers just aren't that good here

Guest