Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/16
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AvatarDan Szymborski
12:48
They should.
jon
12:49
You said previously (at about 25 games into the season) that ZiPS had the Cubs at ~2% odds at 117 wins. Where do those odds sit now?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:49
I haven't re-run them, but it ought to be slightly lower.
Friend
12:49
Thoughts on Michael Fulmer so far?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:49
He's looked great. The Tigers were very smart to throw in the towel on 2015 and retool a bit.
Loopy
12:49
Dae-Ho Lee's power at all sustainable? It seems like his fb distance is pretty dang far.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:50
Well, his current SLG probably isn't, but he should still have nice power - he's not a little dude and he hit well in KBO long before they juiced it up.
Carnak
12:51
Alex Reyes will be on the Cardinals major league roster by what date?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:51
I would hope very soon, though the Cards have some difficult decisions to make.
Bad Bill
12:51
Speaking of good names among drafted players, how about Cardinals 31st-round choice Jonathan Murders? I mean, you've got to pull for that guy being this year's recipient of Cardinals voodoo magic, right?
Loopy
12:51
Hyun-Soo Kim or Robbie Grossman more likely to provide offensive value ROS?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:51
Kim if he plays
976
12:52
Hyun-Soo Kim isn't this good right? What does his second half look like, now that we have some MLB data?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:52
ZiPS had him at 350/400 coming into the season and that still strikes me as reasonable.
976
12:53
Evan Gattis is totally getting a catcher rating next year, right? Is this just the Astros drumming up trade interest?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:53
Yeah, he'll definitely get one on the ZiPS DMB disk
12:54
Houston understands value - it's in their interest to see the most demanding defensive position their players can play at a respectable level
12:55
Every move to the easier side of the defensive spectrum lowers the player's ultimate ceiling, so don't lower that bar until you really need to
Chad
12:55
Doesnt it seem unlikely that Vince Velasquez is just a strain of the bicep and he will be "fine"?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:55
I don't want to jinx him.
Oddbal Herrera
12:55
If you're the Cubs and your playoff ticket is basically punched, why trade for a relief pitcher early and assume the risk he gets injured? Wait two months, and the prices are a bit higher but you don't have the risk his arm blows up in those two months...
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:55
Agree.
Jenna Haze
12:56
What are your thoughts on Maikel Franco's 2016 season thus far?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:56
He's below where he ought to be, but people got too hyped on his 2015.
I expect OPS+s in the 105-110 range typically
Zorak
12:56
You don't hear about it much now that they're a decent team, but are the Mets still broke? Can they afford to take on a big contract to improve at the deadline? I just keep thinking how many of their problems Votto would solve, and he probably wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects to land.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:56
They did get a bit of a break in the repayment.
Jumbo Problems
12:57
Jumbo is awesome in the minor leagues but a disaster every time he steps on an MLB mound. Are his problems mental or is he just a AAA level player?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:57
He was hardly a disaster in 2014-2015.
Erik
12:57
Does Vince Velasquez have more value as a closer or as a starter who you can't trust to go the full season ever?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:57
Well, in this instance, a closer, but you don't really *know* this yet.
Brian
12:57
Do the Braves have without a doubt have the best farm system? They also appear to be favorites to land 6-7 of the top 30 international talents as well.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:58
I don't like saying without a doubt -- there's a lot of pitching that can break bad quickly -- but it's right up there
Erik
12:58
Are people who say they want the "human element" of umps calling balls and strikes aware that they're basically just saying "I want the occasional mistake"? Or am I missing something there. What do you think they mean by "human"?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:58
Nostalgia.
Danny Almonte
12:58
How good is Trevor Story really?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:58
He's Mark Reynolds that could play shortstop.
12:59
Mark Reynolds that could play shortstop would be pretty good.
Big Joe Montferrant
12:59
How much do you think Otani would get if he was posted today?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:59
$150 million.
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