JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:16

now, the new owner has said some positive things

12:17

but it's a lot less expensive to buy every a round at Pickles Pub than it is to sign Gunnar Henderson to an nine year extension

Tim

12:17

Nathaniel Lowe was already being a singles hitter and it’s only gotten worse. He’s hitting the ball dramatically less hard and how much longer do we give him to right the ship? I’ll have to make a decision when Jung returns (hopefully in the next 10 days) and I can move on with Vaughn and cut Lowe loose

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think his rope is running out of...uh...rope

12:19

He's hit incredibly weakly this year and the Rangers aren't in a position to be patient

He's only really had one excellent season

12:20

offensively, and the rest are just fine-ish. If we're talking fantasy, I don't think Lowe has a ton of value unless we're talking REALLY deep leagues

But here's the problem: I have even less faith in Vaughn

Jeremy

12:21

Odds that one NL playoff team finishes below .500? Odds that two do so?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

ZiPS actually had it less than 10%

The average wins for the eventual wild card winners in the last run was 91.8, 88.0, and 85.4 in the NL

12:22

(in the AL, it was 93.6, 89.5, 86.8)

Aaron Judge

12:22

Have you seen anything like these past three hitting seasons that wasn't, you know, Bighead Barry? We all thought 2017 was impossible. But that he'd never outdo it. And then 2022. And surely he'll decline from there. And now this.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

No, Judge's had the best hitting years since Bonds

Getting 11 WAR is massive!

Tjf167

12:23

Giancarlo Stanton is having a somewhat productive season with the bat despite pretty much not walking anymore. Is it worth rostering a 0.5 WARish DH only if you're a world series contender?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

As always, it depends on who the player would be otherwise

Stanton's incredibly meh, but he's not the team's biggest problem

Oaktown Blues

12:24

It's June and Brent Rooker has a 150 wRC+ with the xWOBA to match. But he's also sporting a 34.6% K rate. Is he due for a collapse?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Likely not a collapse

the zStats have his triple slash at .261/.334/.496

So 150? That's a bit too juicy. But he's still hitting very well

12:26

OH, didn't answer the whole Giants question from above. Sorry, I'm easily distracted

Not sure Matos OVER either of those other two

12:27

and I don't think there's any PARTICULAR reason to be worried about his defense, at least any more than a couple months ago

Dan Spivey

12:27

Nats fastest team to cross 100 SB since 2009. Any Moneyball-esk market inefficiency there? I love teams that aren’t expected to compete doing weird, wild stuff.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'm not convinced teams are stealing enough

12:28

BUT...that analysis doesn't include injury risk and I haven't really ever dove into that

Hans Buby

12:28

How do you solve a problem like A. Rizzo?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I think you spread some butter and a poached egg on top

Holliday

12:29

He still doesn't seem to have found it down in the minors. Panic time yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Uh...he's a 20 year old shortstop with a wRC+ around 140 in Triple A

why would we panic abotu that?

12:30

Now, there is a bit of a worry that he might not be aggressive enough at the plate in the minors, a touch of Jeremy Hermida Disease, but it's way too soon to worry about that

call me in 2027 if that hasn't changed

Aaron Judge

12:30

Judge has had more barrels since his streak started than anyone in baseball has had the whole season. And it's not close?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think that's accurate

Colton

12:31

What's the worst every game performance that would still hold positive value? I think this is a better question than the "if a person went 1-3 with only singles every game."

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm nto sure, our tools are mostly macro than micro

12:32

oh a philosophical level, maybe 0-6 but two of the other team's stars mess up their hammys fielding your outs?

Connecting…