JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/24

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jj

12:32

I would love to see a mid/late-season update on some early season stories about players who Fangraph writers thought there was a change the player's outlook like they do prediction articles. The Jo Adell article stands out this year. Every year SSS is stressed in general and "April", but every year I read multiple articles about a player on an early season hot streak who has 'changed' something, but then that "change" seems to regress and we get a very similar end result.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

It would be interesting

Though I worry about it being a little meta

Vader

12:32

Thanks for the chats…what stats does the Great Dan use when he wants to evaluate hitters? Pitchers?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I'm just the mediocre Dan

12:33

but in any case, philosophically, I use the simplest stat available in the situation that doesn't change the basic truth of the conclusion

I knwo this might sound weird coming from ME, but I don't like complexity for the sake of complexity

12:34

I do some complex things, but only because I believe those complex things are the best way to reach specific intellectually honest conclusions

Guest

12:34

How do you anticipate baseball changing if MLB switched to cricket rules where one team bats their entire 9 innings in a row and then the home team bats after?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

You might kill some pitchers

But I don't know enough about cricket.

Fluke

12:34

What was less likely: Judge's 2022 or that 2022 wasn't a fluke? Like, how many people hit 10+ WAR once vs those people doing it more than once?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Wasn't

it may be at the upper end of his range, but it's not a fluke

Also Dan

12:34

Can you give a (made up if necessary) example of the kind of information teams buy from you? You mentioned selling "super detailed" ZiPs for Shota Imanaga to some teams a few weeks ago, what does that look compared to the projections we see in a typical article?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

The basic projection I sell they get the whole careers and all the probability information and comps. For an extra thing or an extra pre-baked assumption, I'll throw that in for an additional $250 per

12:36

and teams sometimes ask for *very* specific things. Like all the projections but in their park, or a player's projection on every team, so on and so forth

12:37

And some things are niche. One team ONLY subscribes to a bi-weekly projection of the tipping point win for every playoff spot in their league

for pre-baked assumption, stuff like "assume this player is +X at a certain position they haven't played much" or "what if this player improved their O-Swing by 5%"

Guest

12:38

Is there an inconsequential secret that you've never told anyone that you'd like to share?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

hmm

I've binged the entire run of MacGyver on MULTIPLE occasions?

12:40

Some years ago, I was once really hungry in the middle of the night but was really lazy, so I just took a sip of caesar dressing straight from the bottle

crying

3

btravers

12:41

Do you think the cubs are unlucky or just bad?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think unlucky and middling

Dmx

12:41

Last week’s dodgers/yankees opener is exhibit A for elimination of the ghost runner.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

zombie runner!

Andrew

12:41

Rutschman’s walk rate has cratered but his power and average have increased. Do you think this was a conscious decision?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

It feels like a conscious decision, he's just a lot more aggressive on marginal pitches

to a degree that I can't think it's just playing worse

and I'm guessing nobody sprays him int he eyes with hot sauce before every game

danny

12:42

have there been any thoughts on expanding the video content to more analytical stuff? I love the site but there's so many times where I'm like I would love to see this article as a video

Dan Szymborski

12:42

We haven't really talked about that much

12:43

I think the issue is the skillset matching

On staff, we don't really have a dedicated audio/video person, which is why we haven't relaunched FanGraphs Audio since Dylan left

12:44

I would suspect if we did that route, we'd partner with one of the few really popular baseball YouTube creators out there

Guest

12:45

Do you have any charts tracking your weight loss journey?

bat question

12:45

and Meredith wills is not the authority on this subject. it is jj crisco, Richard Greenwald, and many others with decades of published work on the topic. a shame this community is not more interested.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Charts? No

Just slowly and steadily losing weight

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