JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/24

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Dusty Baker

12:45

Dusty Baker got a lot of crap for the way he treated Chad McCormick last year. Was he right all along or is this a different year different outcome thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Meh, it's like 110 PA

Disaster at Sacrifice

12:46

I just want to appreciate you referencing Jacqueline du Pre and Samoa Joe in the same post. The numbers don't lie about Judge being great.

Eastville

12:46

O's extensions: Henderson = Bobby Witt, Adley = Realmuto, Westburg = ??

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Well, from the O's point of view, ALbies would be best!

lol

Guest

12:47

There's a casual relationship between WAR and a player's popularity among fans. (A lot more people would say Judge is their favorite player than Dominic Smith.) What player has defied that relationship for you personally enjoying watching a player?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Well, even when his WAR has been not so good, Elly De La Cruz

And Oneil Cruz has been way more fun than his overall lines

12:48

And Nelson Cruz. He's not really overrated, but I want to pretend that everyone with the last name Cruz is more fun than their WAR

Pete Alonso

12:48

Where am I playing in August?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The United States

Yo Yo Mama

12:48

Hey Dan - your reference to Jaqueline du Pre tells me you’re maybe a big classical music guy. What’s your top 5 composers power ranking look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Yeah, I talk classical music from time to time in the off topic Qs

I'm not big on ranks like this

but I can tell you the composers I've listened to most from the Media Monkey stats'

12:50

Looks like my five most listened to, at least from my personal collection, are Mahler, Beethoven, Bruckner, Haydn, Chopin

Alf

12:50

Do you think that the "seller's market" thing is overblown? Or will there really be a significant difference in the cost of acquiring established players?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Tends to be overblown, but ti's real in a limited way I think

Dr J

12:50

i was wondering what data, if any, correlate to predicting future successful closers? For example, Jason Martinez and Ben Joyce can throw 100+, but does that play a roll in predicting future saves chances? Is that or anything else of note? Thank you for all you do!

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Basically, being good is the notable predictor

12:52

How does ZiPS say should close for the Cubs? My money is on Tyson Miller (and it certainly can't be Hector Neris).

Dan Szymborski

12:53

IF he's in the pen when his neck is better, Ben Brown

12:55

ZiPS really just doesn't like the Cubs bullpen at all

it thinks the next best pitcher is the also injured Julian Merryweather

12:56

of the healthy guys, ZiPS like Leiter the best

Cards fan

12:56

This is what VEB thinks of your article.
think his projection system put far too much emphasis on the surface level results over the first 6 weeks of the minor league season, when the common-sense (and analytical) approach for decades has been to discount those early season surface level results due to the amount of players playing at a level higher than they ever have before. In short, I think his article about the future of the Cardinals, based almost entirely on early season slumps in the minors, was a poorly constructed article with a poorly researched conclusion. So, yes, he fell into the overly emotional and reactionary bucket with that one.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

They're free to think that

BUT, the effect is made up bullshit

12:57

I haven't looked explicitly at six weeks, but the first month of a player at a new level is actually NOT lower than expected

Colt Keith Hopium

12:58

Why does Colton Cowser have negative defensive projections across the board? He's been the most valuable defensive OF in the league so far (by OAA)

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Well, because it's driven by him being like a +23 run OF

on a seasonal basis

and projections aren't going to believe that

if he's merely good, then the positional adjustments take more of it back

12:59

re:Jo Adell article and the like, I'm trying to get more of a feel for what changes really stick. There is always talk about certain things being more sticky with smaller samples (swing rate, etc) but I'm not sure how these really work on an individual player who has a history and now seems to have changed something for a month.

Yet Another Dan

1:00

How would you rank the following Dans in order of greatness? Aykroyd, Castellaneta, Fogelberg

Dan Szymborski

1:00

asking a dan to rank dans is cruel

Cat Latos

1:01

I enjoy your chats but I'm really here to hear about your cats

Dan Szymborski

1:01

They're not doing a damn thing at the moment