JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/23

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TKDC

12:19

Obviously there is a chunk of regression likely in the way, but Orlando Arcia signing for 3 years plus an option totally less than $10 million and then becoming a useful starting short stop proves that AA is indeed a witch, correct?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Correct.

Reds Enjoyer

12:19

Hey Dan, is it realistic that the Reds can win the Central this year with how bad the starting pitching has been and the news that Lodolo is out until August? Also, would love your current estimate of the odds for each team to win the division. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I think it's realistic, though not the *probable* outcome

12:20

Most divisions, it wouldn't be

But the Central is baaaad

Both of 'em

12:21

In this case, I think our odds are about what my gut thinks

SinkingShip

12:21

How often does ZiPS project an AL or NL Central division winner with a sub-.500 record? Currently only one team in each division over that mark, and just barely at that.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Not super often., I shared the win playoff prob chart last week, I dont' think it's change much

Lemme see if I can find that

12:22

While I look for this, listen to the music

12:23

It's likely that at least one NL Central team pops up above .500.

More likely in AL Central, about 15% chance or so

B Snit’s Bongos

12:24

Will Ronald Acuna Jr. finish 2023 with 100+ total SBs and HRs?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

No

TKDC

12:24

Do you think Braves prospects often overperform their prospect ranking because the Braves seem to promote guys much faster than any other team which means by the time a guy might move up the prospect rankings, he is already in Atlanta?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I'm not sure they necessarily *do* overperform their prospect ranking

Who's Fabio?

12:25

Hi Dan - Could show us a couple of the images you made with Bo Bichette's head in Star Wars stills thus giving rise to baseball Jedi Knight Boba Chette?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Freddy

12:26

Framber in the elite tier of SP’s for you right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Yes

12:28

In the mid-June full ZiPS run, he's fourth in projected 2024 WAR

B Snit’s Bongos

12:28

Which of these clubs will finish 2023 with the most wins? TB, MIN, TEX, ATL, PIT, ARI?

12:29

Which of these clubs will finish 2023 with the most wins? NYY, CLE, HOU, MIA, MIL, LAD?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Rays. Basically, to end up with more wins than the Rays, you have to be like 12 better than them on a seasonal basis. I don't think that in terms of roster strength, anyone has that argument

Houston for two

Travis

12:30

Acuna has hit 36 balls at a 110+ MPH, which is more than 23 teams and 18 more than second place, Ohtani. That’s kinda insane, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

He back

Guest

12:30

What is happening with Matt Rudick? Older guy beating up on younger guys? Tiny, furious man wreaking vengeance on the gods that robbed him of height?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Altuve's hit a lot of homers!

12:31

I'm not sure why he's still at Binghamton at this point

Something may have clicked for him power wise

but he's so old you gotta get him up against better competition if you ever want to find out

JermX

12:32

How confident are you in a turnaround for Freddy Peralta?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Moderately!

Bryce Turangalila Symphonie

12:33

Thanks to you, I now know that BB% for minor leaguers, especially in the low minors, isn't as important as one might imagine. Could you give me ZiPS's opinion of one of this year's most extreme examples, Carter Jensen?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

ha on the handle

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