JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

Oh thank goodness, there are questions in the queue

bkgeneral

12:04

The Braves seem to lose another pitcher every week. Their record is still great, do they have enough depth to overcome the injuries?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I think so, but it may be closer than they're comfortable with, especially if they have a quiet deadline

I'm not *highly confident* the Phillies are five games better than the Braves, but I think that it's not unlikely

12:05

If that makes sense

Woody1937

12:05

Juan Cespedes of the DSL Angels set an unofficial record with 8 stolen bases in a game last week while going just 1/4 with a walk. Whats the oddest statline you can recall?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

It's not quite the same thing, but my favorite game oddity is this game from 2008

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200806120.shtml

12:06

In the space of like 10 minutes, they did all the possible strikeouts - strikeout looking, strikeout swinging, strikeout foul bunt, strikeout runner safe at first on dropped third strike, strikeout runner out at first on dropped third strike

Auswan_Kletin

12:06

Hi Dan, as a Yankee fan I was surprised to see that Austin Wells was not on the ZIPS decliners list. Where does he stand now compared to before the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

228th of like 1900. 101 coming into the season, 91 now

grandbranyan

12:08

Let's say a team had a +1.07 R/G differential over their last 402 games, a +1.57 R/G differential over their last 194 games, and a +2.10 R/G differential over their last 52 games. What kind of R/G differential might your human brain computer project for that team over their remaining 84 games this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

1.7-1.8ish? the weights aren't that terrible

NicklePickers

12:09

Curious if Zips has increased excitement for these White Sox callups

Dan Szymborski

12:10

wait, who'd they callup? teel's back but he was injured

Talfred

12:10

Do you have any sort of standard for what qualifies a hitter as "streaky"? People assign that quality to players all the time, but no one seems to bother to define it at all.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I don't, and really, it means whatever people want to believe

12:11

and frequently, people frequently don't even project who *IS* streaky correctly

let alone underlying causes

for example, people will swear to sunday that home run teams are streakier scoring teams

12:13

In fact, if you look at the last 30 years (and I have), among teams with similar runs scored, the more HR reliant team has a small but real edge in that they're *more* consistent scorers, not less

12:14

Just to crib my old tweets on it

12:15

Not in the way people want to believe, either. Teams with a high percentage of hits being home runs have less game to game volatility in their runs Based on data since 1993, you'd expect a team with 4.5 r/g and 9.4% of hits as HR to have a CV of 74%. For 4.5 r/g and 20.0%, 65%

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1980429292598358392

(Those are the Pirates and Yankees HR/H%. The Pirates had the fourth highest CV in baseball (stdev 80.1% of their mean) while the the Yankees had eight lowest (stdev 69.1% of their mean)

Sorry, for some reason, twitter text posts poorly into jotcast

12:16

that's coefficient of variation

Talfred

12:17

I feel like fans usually overestimate what the return will be for players traded near the deadline - particularly for rentals. Your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Generally yes

I think the older, the more likely it is

because they have a lot of experience in some absolutely crazy deadline trades

12:19

Like, today's internet would go ABSOLUTELY BATSHIT over the Jeff Bagwell-Larry Anderson trade if it had happened today

12:20

This wasn't just hindsight. By my calculations, Bagwell had a *176 wRC+* for New Britain

and yes, Larry Andersen was really good then

12:21

but they traded BA's #32 prospect for *one month* of a good reliever

frank

12:21

In your article about Veen and other call-ups, you say “ZiPS translates his minor league line as the 16th-best among minor league hitters this season (.280/.357/.466).” Where can we find these stats on our own, or this list? Alternatively, where can we find ZIPS’ Major League Equivalencies or ROS projections? Great stuff ....

Dan Szymborski

12:21

You can't, unfortunately. We don't yet have a mechanism for automatic translations in our system

and it's not something I can update every day unless I get way more clever

12:22

I may have extra time to finally get something David can translate into the FG system this offseason....