JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Jeremy Fox

12:22

Are the teams that are underperforming their ZiPS projections so far mostly doing so for the reasons you would've expected before the season? Or are there surprises? For instance, I did not have "The Red Sox are short on good starting pitchers and outfielders" on my bingo card.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Some are different

12:23

Like, I wouldn't have had "Tigers fighting to stay out of last place with and Skubal injured" and NOT have assumed the pitching was awful

and I would have been dead frigging wrong

Iszy Licht

12:24

Who do you and zips think is the mostly likely to break Reggie Jackson's career SO record?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

ZiPS says James Wood

12:25

I don't think he'll be healthy enough to do it or good enough to get playing time after 2027, but Stanton COULD theoretically braek it first, but Wood would be projected to eventually break that record

NicklePickers

12:26

What does Zips say about the importance to a pitcher of catching a ball at first base? Asking for Eegan Kakin.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

banned! lol

MorboTheAnnihilator

12:26

Hi Dan! The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Hey morbo!

MTF

12:27

Davy Andrews article left one possible (partial) explanation of Kwan's nightmare year as being badly-beaten-by-BABIP. Does Zip see any hope?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

To an extent

12:28

ZiPS thinks Kwan should have, from his hit profile, a .271 BABIP instead of his current .236. But .271 is still below his history enough that we should at least adjust our expectations downwards

kwan's 2027 projection has dropped from an OPS+ of 107 to 100

eccentricatlfan

12:29

Brendan mentioned yesterday that there was a whole host of Baumann headlines that apparently had to be squashed by Meg. In the public interest, any insight into them that can be shared (if not the list itself)?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

lol, no I don't know them

there was one I seconded though since it came up in slack

12:32

sorry, I was trying to find one

Call Me Big Daddy When You Braxton Ashcraft is ready

12:33

(you'll either get the reference or think it's insane)

I've had a couple headlines spiked before, for good cause

Back during COVID, when the A's announced they were just going to release a ton of minor leaguers to save money

12:34

I was writing on the COVID update that week, and my original title for the article was Oakland A's: "Fuck You, That's Why"

laughing

1

lmb2020

12:34

Is Len Koenecke's story well known? I enjoyed that easter egg in your article yesterday.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

it doesn't seem to be, which always strikes me as surprising

because the story is absolutely amazing

a baseball player drank a QUART of whiskey, then got in a fight with a pilot for control of the plane, and then was killed by a fire extinguisher

that is an absolutely crazy story

Auswan_Kletin

12:35

Would Dillon Dingler net a greater return in trade than Skubal at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Yes

Baseball Learner

12:36

Paul G or Judge: who end the season with more career home runs and do they get to 400?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I think Goldschmidt will have a few more HRs and they'll both fall a bit short this year

Though it really depends on the exact return for Judge

And that may depend on what the AL East loosk like in a month

12:38

If the Yankees have a seven-game lead or something, I can see them being extra careful with Judge

MorboTheAnnihilator

12:38

Have you considered using one of the various AI products to translate ZiPS from excel to python for you? Or, are you concerned that doing so might trigger the AI singularity?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

ZiPS has just SO many interlocking "modules" that I'm not even sure where to begin

NicklePickers

12:38

Sorry, got cut off on my White Sox question. I meant guys like Braden Montgomery and Jacob Gonzalez.

12:39

Jacob Gonzalez seems to have changed his approach and blossomed at AAA. Has that registered with Zips?

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