JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 6/25/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:40

Montgomery's up to a 105 this season (up from 94) Jacob Gonzalez is up by a simialr amount

680519 Mario Camilletti 64 75.390 686554 Oliver Dunn 79 90.057 694378 Jacob Gonzalez 69 79.430 695731 Braden Montgomery 94 104.866 656537 Derek Hill 76 85.906 808959 Munetaka Murakami 123 133.061 678246 Miguel Vargas 106 113.791 664774 LaMonte Wade Jr. 94 100.673 572191 Michael A. Taylor 67 73.485 680753 Adam Hackenberg 56 61.117

peanut-gallery

1

formerly matt w

12:41

Hi Dan! Was Braxton Ashcraft close to the ZIPS improvers list? Situation where ZIPS already was in on him?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Yeah, ZiPS was already at 118 with him and up to 124

Jeremy Fox

12:42

Re: streakiness, could you use ZiPS to project, say, month-to-month variance in player or team performance? And do you think it would tell you anything interesting that you couldn't learn from just projecting the distribution of season-long performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I just haven't found a whole lot of value in month-to-month projections of this type, either in variance, or shifting weights within a season

Philip Christy

12:42

When the owners put out their incredibly crappy CBA proposals, do you actually believe a single word they say?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

No, but I don't believe anything anyone in baseball, team or player tells me if it's not off the record.

12:44

I'm naturally very cynical -- I was a cynical, sarcastic child even -- and that's the strong influence of my lawyer grandfather, who I was very close to

12:45

Not a lot of people tell little kids "Don't ask a question you don't already know the answer to" or "If you don't want to answer a question, answer the question you'd prefer to answer instead"

12:46

or "A lie of omission is not a lie"

My mom agreed with him on the first two, but they used to fight about the last one

MorboTheAnnihilator

12:46

"Sorry, for some reason, twitter text posts poorly into jotcast" gotta paste as plain text

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I solved it by pasting into a notepad file first and then into here

mlommler

12:46

Mason Miller's ERA underperforming his FIP is so incredibly funny.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

yeah, that tickles my fancy

Who the hell has an ERA under 1 and been UNLUCKY to get there

InsertWittyNameHere

12:46

If you ever listened to Larry Andersen on the radio, I'd gladly trade Bagwell for him again.

MorboTheAnnihilator

12:47

How much bat tracking data have you incorporated into ZiPS now that we have a few years of data available?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I've found that *changes* in the swing data are more useful vis-a-vis zips than the raw data itself

Since a lot of the stuff in the swing data were already captured otherwise

scottsjunk1981

12:48

How close did Andrew Alvarez come to making the list of biggest Zips improvers?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Not very. The improvement is only a few points of ERA+

tigersfan1

12:49

zips zips zips zips zips zips zips zips zips

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:49

Will Tatis Jr. make it to 20 home runs this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

no

Jeremy Fox

12:49

Did ZiPS expect any teams to commit 6 errors in one game this season? I'm just going to go ahead and assume the answer is "Yes, it projected the Mets to do that."

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I mean, you should project the Mets to have tragedy

12:50

A Mets season is like an It's Always Sunny episode. You may not know how the gang's plan will unravel, but you know it WILL, specatcularly

mlommler

12:50

You know, I find a lot of AI stuff (even for coding) fairly annoying but my understanding is that figuring out where to *start* with converting the various ZiPS modules to python is probably one of AI's better use-cases.

formerly matt w

12:50

I now Len Koenecke's story but I always think it was Ed Delahanty! And more grimly, I think Ed Delahanty was Marty Bergen.

Talfred

12:50

Does Marcelo Mayer have a low ceiling at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I wouldn't say LOW, but I'd say the last 18 months have certainly LWOERED it

InsertWittyNameHere

12:51

I got my first synth the other day (Moog Grandmother). Do you use any of that or are you just a classical piano kind of guy? Also, which cat is the best pianist when they walk on the keys?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

no synths, I have a real piano and a very good digital piano

12:52

I've been on a constant lookout for a decent quality used bosendorfer grand within driving distance since you can sometimes find them for 15-25

12:53

Now, someday I'll throw in the towel and get a yamaha grand for 12-15 which are certainly good used pianos to get

but if I pull the trigger on that, I'm not ALSO going to get a bosendorfer, as I do not have room for two grand pianos

12:54

so I'd be basically ptuting the "never" on the bosendorfer

and I love how those sound

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