JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/29/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/29/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:42

It was a priority

The funny thing is that the hits today are better productive outs hit anyway

12:43

Leaving out bunt attempts since those are purposeful

The average hitter had 13.6 non-bunt productive outs in 1982 per 600 PA

But despite the strikeout rate being much higher, it only decline do 12.9 non-bunt productive outs in 2022

decline do?

12:44

They put a ton more balls into play

but contrary to conventional wisdom, it wasn't this super clinic on pure baseball fundamentals like some claim

they just put a LOT of really weak crap into play

v2micca

12:45

From a purely person aesthetic, which do you enjoy more. Watching a young player making the next step on his road to super-stardom, or watching a superstar perform at the apex of their abilities?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Generally young players

Generally speaking, since I watch an absurd amount of baseball, due to interest and my job enabling that interest, by the time stars peak, i have seen them a LOT

And I like what's new

12:46

At this point, I don't ever want to hear another middle-of-the-road Beethoven 5th until the day I die

give me something NEW and SPIKY and EXTREME SOMEWHERE

Braves

12:46

The Braves have a 23% win World Series on Fangraphs. At a high level, how are those odds calculated?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I don't run those however

the postseason is simulated using the team roster strengths

which is why you see teams with good ROS% but relatively low playoff percentage have surprisingly high WS odds

GuardianKnot

12:47

Do you ever run ZiPS projections for ridiculous video game type players? Like a batter who hits .500, ect.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I have not

Cole n Everett

12:47

You ain't got no jurdichen

Guest

12:47

In your recent article predicting Mitch Keller's contract extension, why did you predict a 6 year term?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Because ZiPS did and I didn't feel a need to tell it

Coney

12:47

OK, so now D. German is equal to Phil Humber. I did mine with one less pitch.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

German's a better pitcher than Humber was

(though a better dude)

errr Humber a better dude that is

Nick

12:48

the Tigers just called up Colt Keith to AAA and all he did was go 3-4 with a homer and 2 walks. I can't take much more of Schoop and Nevin. What does ZiPS think Colt could do if he got called up to the show after the All Star Break?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

247/305/409

CLE Fan

12:49

The Guardians offense has a 112 wRC+ in June - can they sustain it or is their real talent level somewhere between that and their rough start?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Somewhere in between, which is usually the case in life

They coudl still use some help offensively

John

12:49

With the season Ivan Herrera is having down in AAA, do you he has enough value with the Marlins, that they could move Tink + Herrera + an OFer in a move for an Edward Cabrera type?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Yes

Or better

Predict the Ladder

12:49

Any chance the Cubs climb to the top of the NL Central

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Every team has some chance

There's no really good team in the divsiion

Guest

12:50

The Reds-Orioles series was really great. Am I thinking clearly if I expect to see a World Series between them before 2027. i t ,

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