JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:18

I've Bauers-skeptical

Though it's nice that he got the 99 turbo boost in MLB the Show!

Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question

12:18

How do you pronounce the word "Pecan"?

a) PEE-can
b) pe-CAN
c) PEE-con
d) pe-CON

Dan Szymborski

12:18

None of these

I say puh-CON

Appa Yip Yip

12:18

Can you fix Alek Manoah?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Me personally? No

12:19

I like to think I'm a very good analyst, but I'm not a pitching coach

If he wants help playing Hearthstone or something I could help him

B'ryce Szymbobski

12:19

What's up with Sandy Alcantra? Is he gonna bounce back to form?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

He'll be fine, but 2022 was not his baseline, which I keep trying to tell people!

I mean, his FIP is around where it typically is

12:21

Here's what I wrote about him in March

Alcantara is still likely to be one of the better pitchers in the league, and ZiPS certainly likes him, placing him among the leaders in WAR. But ZiPS is explicitly not trying to take into account rule changes, and I think Alcantara is one of the pitchers with the most significant chances to be affected by them. That’s a common theme among several of my bust picks this year, simply because this year, it’s something that causes additional uncertainty.
In this case, Alcantara, by far, had more groundballs hit into shifts than any pitcher in baseball in 2022, with 166; only seven other pitchers were above 100. I still think he’ll be a really good pitcher, but I expect his platoon splits will rise farther than ZiPS does, and before remaining confident he’s in ultra-elite territory, I want to make sure that the changeups that lefties facing Alcantara drive into the ground aren’t sneaking through at high rates.

(in the pitcher busts piece)

Jeff

12:24

How much better of a prospect is Elly than Oneil Cruz was when he was initially called up?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I'd say *slightly* better?

They're both excellent prospects at callup

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One

12:28

Which AL East team is built best for the playoffs (as currently constructed)?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Relative to their record, probably the Jays

their talent is quite concentrated in their frontline players

12:29

The Rays have the amazing depth, the Yankees have all sorts of injury questions, the Orioles would still likely go into most playoff games with the weaker starting pitcher

12:31

How does Kershaw get that much break on his curve with low spin?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Ah, you probably want more of a mechanics specialist for this!

12:32

For his 12-6, I'm sure his arm slot and release point have a lot to do with it

I'm not sure if he's still doing it this way, but he at least used to use his middle finger on the *rim* of the seam rather than on the seam squarely

James

12:33

So the Astros rotation currently feautres JP France, Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco and they still lead the league in ERA. What is their secret?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I wouldn't expect these guys to continue beating their peripherals by so much

Domingo

12:34

First it was "on a heater". Now it's "celly". The people DEMAND better.

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One

12:34

Which left for dead players do you (and ZiPS) think still has a lot of life in them?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I still think there's a chance Abreu turns it around!

Old for my Age

12:35

Jack Suwinski is on a 500-AB pace for 34HR/18SB. Is he worth rostering in a H2H league or are the low avg, o-fers, and days off too much of a headache? Do you see him improving to the point of being a must-roster player or will the Pirates move on from him fairly soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I think he'll fall off *that* pace a bit

But the Pirates aren't likely to move on

12:36

I think in most leagues, he's a useful second-tier talent

Cito's mustache

12:36

Really enjoy the chats. Would you rather bet on production from Correa, Perdomo, or Rosario ROS?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Still Correa

Sharp

12:37

Marcell Ozuna can hit? Shocking that a player with thousands of plate appearances logged of good performance would all of the sudden be a good hitter /s

Dan Szymborski

12:37

In fairness, he was pretty awful the last two years

Sandwich Enthusiast

12:37

Why are projections seemingly so much higher on Rowdy Tellez than he's shown? He seems thoroughly replaceable this year

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