JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/21

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Dumb question

12:48

I don't really know! Just like.. do you think it's pretty accurate overall? I don't know much about ZiPS honestly lol

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Projection systems are very close and tend to be the least inaccurate way to predict

I say least inaccurate rather than most accurate for a reason

12:49

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020-zips-projection-wrap-up-part-i-th...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020-zips-projection-wrap-up-part-ii-t...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2020-zips-projection-wrap-up-part-iii-...

Appa Yip Yip

12:50

What kind of shenanigans would Tatìs and Vlad get up to if they were in a buddy cop movie?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

LETS NEURAL NETWORK IT

OK, someone give me a name for the Tatis/Vlad movie.

And some one give me an actor to play the antagonist.

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:51

The antagonist is Jeff Bridich.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

OK, we got an antagonist

Derek

12:51

Does John Smoltz count as an actor?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Didn't he play General Zod?

Al Gone Quinn

12:51

title: Next Blood

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Junior II: Next Blood

12:53

OK, we're starting with this

Movie: Junior II: Next Blood
Starring: Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jeff Bridich
Synopsis: In this buddy cop film, Tatis and Guerrero are

12:55

It also gave me a sequel!

Sadman

12:56

Onions are the best topping on anything savory

Al Gone Quinn

12:56

There are so many genres that are covered if you put blood in the title

Dan Szymborski

12:56

let's try this!

12:59

Everythign after blood is generated.

Guest

12:59

What do you think the rest of Soroka's career looks like? Can he get back and be effective? Or is he lower body Matt Harvey?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I'm crossing my fingers, but it's a real guest

Base Ball

12:59

Does zips adjust projections for a player who continually outperforms or underperforms his projections in previous years over a large sample in any way, or does it ignore that relationship? For example, Andrew Heaney has a long track record of doing worse than what projections peg him for based on his underlying numbers…does zips account for that?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

What you're talking about is something ironed out during calibration and testing over the years

1:00

Neither the size of an error or the consistency of errors actually correlates with future errors

Nathan

1:01

So spin rates are down but has offense increased?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

The league was hitting 238/313/398 through June 14th

It's been 247/323/415 since

Baseball guy

1:03

OK, a rare prosect for prospect trade: Who says no, Brandon Marsh for one of the Marlins' starting pitchers?

cool

1

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I actually think you could theoretically could work something out along these lines

Oddball Herrera

1:03

"238/313/398 through June 14th It's been 247/323/415 since". I think the difference is basically single handedly Kyle Schwarber's hot streak

Erik

1:03

Speaking of projection errors, now that we're a bit further removed from it, how do you feel about that mid 2010s Royals team's ability to seemingly consistently outperform their projections? Just some noise that looks like signal or was there something real there that's changed how you view teams?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

They only did briefly

1:04

Royals 2010-2019

1:05

755 projected wins

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