JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/21/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:59

The nats didn't have to make it as clear in public as they did

Adam

12:59

Which fan base, in your experience, is the best at handling adversity/long stretches of noncompetitiveness?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Rockies fans

1:00

They get good attendance even when the team is bleak

and there's pot to take care of any of the after-effects of watching the Rockies

Dan

1:01

Zips seems oddly...positive on Jarred Kelenic? Why is it high on someone striking out 27% of the time at AAA after playing in MLB

Dan Szymborski

1:01

It's kinda depressing that *that* projection is oddly positive now!

People get too nuts about minor league K% when the player is killing the ball in a league

I had this fight a million times about Bryant some years ago

1:02

He had like a 27% strikeout rate in 2014

in the minors

1:03

But when a guy is slugging .600 or .700 like Bryant was, they're *incentivized* to getting more balls into play

1:04

Kelenic was awful last year in the majors too, but his contact rate was right around league aveage

Tim

1:04

To add on to the defensive metric comment, I think for huge positive outliers (see Beltre, Arenado, etc) they're undoubtedly unbelievable defensively, but *if* defensive metrics are wrong, the error bars aren't symmetrical and their value is likely being overstated.

Morbo

1:04

Follow up on Carpenter, Yankee stadium's short porch is basically tailor made for Carpenter. He has elite launch angles but his exit velocity has fallen off so in most parks he'll hit it to the warning track whereas it goes out in Yankee Stadium. Busch has the second lowest HR park factor for lefties over the last 3 years so it punished Carpenter more then most. 122 for Yankee vs 71 for Busch

Dan Szymborski

1:04

There's still a gulf between taking advantage of a stadium and a 278 wrC+!

David

1:05

It's been a while since you've stopped by Lookout landing but if you're interested, there's been a commenter doing fanposts using manually grabbed savant data for Kelenic, little interesting to see how he is progressing

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Sadly, the Szymborski Alarm no longer works

There's now no mechanism for searching comments at sbnation blogs

Todd

1:05

With so many intriguing rental pieces and their playoff odds in decline, should the Red Sox consider being sellers?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Depends where they are

if they drop farther, then yes, they should

1:06

Especially JDM and Eovaldi

David

1:07

The general trades I've seen for the Mariners for Soto+Corbin have been Kirby + Marte + Hancock + (lesser prospects or Trammell/Kelenic). That's got to be too steep right? Not that the Nationals shouldn't ask /receive that much but that almost completely wipes out the farm. It seems like the narrative they are in is a bit much.

Dan Szymborski

1:07

You may be able to construct a package without both Kirby and Marte, but Hancock's likely to be in there and there would likely be a good quantity of lower level prospects

someone's going to pay a *lot* for Soto I t hink

1:08

Especially if the Nats aren't stupid and insist on packaging Corbin

Paying $59 million to Corbin allows them to "buy" prospects, after all

Dansby SwanSong

1:08

Since June 1, JDM is hitting just .241/.309/.399/.707 That's league average.

Dan Szymborski

1:08

I'm not a fan of multiple endpoint analysis

1:09

Like I'll joke about Hosmer having a .602 OPS since May 1st