JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/21/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/21/22

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Zac

12:46

What does zips think of Torkleson’s early struggles?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

ZiPS is admittedly concerned

12:47

Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF + DR WAR 2023 .232 .321 .412 136 469 61 109 25 1 19 61 57 122 8 3 2 8 8 105 4 1.9 2024 .233 .324 .426 133 455 61 106 26 1 20 62 58 122 7 3 2 8 8 109 5 2.2 2025 .235 .329 .434 134 456 62 107 26 1 21 63 61 125 7 3 2 8 8 113 5 2.4 2026 .231 .330 .431 134 455 63 105 26 1 21 63 63 128 8 3 2 8 8 112 4 2.3 2027 .232 .333 .433 133 448 63 104 25 1 21 63 65 128 7 3 2 8 8 114 4 2.4 2028 .230 .335 .435 130 439 62 101 25 1 21 61 66 127 7 3 2 8 8 115 4 2.4

vomit

1

wow

that looks bad

12:48

Dansby SwanSong

12:49

There has been little to no improvement in the league quad slash .242/.312/.395/.707 despite the warmer weather. We have a scoring problem. What should be done about it?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Dr. Wills' theory from testing found odd results when you take a ball out of a humidor and put it back in

12:50

I'd certainly only take them out of humidor one time and keep them out

Yankees

12:50

I think we will see the Yankees bring back Robertson and add on Happ and see how that shakes out.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

If they wanted Happ, they already could have!

Adam

12:51

If you're the Dodgers, who are you most worried about in the 2nd half/postseason: Bellinger, Muncy, or JT?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Bellinger

He's the most distressing because before all this, he'd be the one of the trio you wouldn't normally expect to see a decline from

Zach

12:51

The Dodgers have to be absolutely thrilled with how Gavin Lux's season is going. Do you believe he can sustain this level of production going forward? He's been unreal since early June.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I certainly hope so! He was on my breakouts list which isn't going as gangbusters as last year

Romorr

12:51

With the Orioles improving, but not there yet, what does FA look like for 2023? What moves would you like to see, if say, we finish 79-83.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

If he's not re-signed, I'd be highly interesting Joe Musgrove

the O's are at the point where adding another inning-eater would be useful too

kcc26

12:54

who do you think is the biggest reliever name moved?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

According to zips, the biggest reliever names who could plausibly be moved

12:55

are quintin torres-costa, bryan montes de oca, Julian Merryweather

laughing

1

12:56

the smallest name is Ty Tice, who is better than his minor league ERA!

Jordan

12:56

is it likely the Rangers trade Martin Perez before deadline and if so what type of prospect/package would they get back for him?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

They'll get an interesting prospect or two, but nothing in the top 100

Mirror Mirror, On the Wall

12:56

Who is the bigguest bust of all? Kelenic, Adell, Marsh.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

So far, Kelenic

His fate isn't sealed, but ouch

12:57

I was never in on Marsh really

Beer here

12:57

Can a writer have a beer in the press box?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I can't remember seeing it, but I also don't look at what other people are drinking

Guest

12:58

I'm very skeptical of defensive metrics. I think they can greatly inflate or deflate a player's WAR, which makes me a little skeptical of WAR. How much merit does my concern have?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I mean, you're right to be concerned

defense is volatile and hard to measure

but by the same token, you can't *ignore* it

so you have to always remember there's an error range for WAR

12:59

and when the differences are the defense, have additional grains of salt

Adam

12:59

Which happens first, MLB expands outside of North America, or any team wins five additional World Series titles?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Outside north america

Brosephina

12:59

I love how Soto is "uncomfortable" with the trade talk...after he rejected one of the largest deals in MLB history. What did he think would happen?

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