JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/22/2019

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/22/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:05

And the chat has begun.

12:07

I wasn't going to address this, but there are a *lot* of questions and comments on the topic, so I'm going to make a quick comment and then no more on the subject.

12:09

Jonah Keri is someone who I've known for a long time and the allegations are as completely and utterly shocking to me as to anyone else.

His alleged conduct is frighteningly awful and I hope the justice system works as it is supposed to.

cool

2

(not that) James

12:10

ZIPS has Soto projected for 48 HR in 2021. Given his career AVE (89.6) and LA (7.7), does that seem a bit aggressive?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

ZiPS has backed off that somewhat - remember these are preseason runs.

greg

12:10

Safe to assume Puig returns more value at the deadline than the draft compensation a declined QO would bring?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think he could.

Dr. Steve Brule

12:12

Outfrielder name of Tony O'Mangus, on CARDINALS. People say strike out too much. WHO CAREEESSS just hrit hrome runs ya dingus. He's a hunk

trophy

1

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I can't parse any of this. Is there a meme I'm missing?

Mike Elias

12:12

What should I do with Mancini?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Honestly, if he can fetch something significant in a trade, it's hard to turn them down in the O's position.

12:13

Mancini's in his prime right now. The O's are such a mess that he'll be in his 30s before the team is any good and already a free agent.

And he's a player with an up-and-down career and a not pariticularly wide skillset.

goOs

12:14

Prediction for top 5 picks in the 2020 draft? Also, if the Royals had the #1 pick in 2019 would they still have picked Witt Jr. (over Adley)?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Oh god, I'm not a prep guru.

12:15

Emerson Hancock? O's will have the pick

12:16

Austin Martin?

JT Ginn's been on radar since he was drafted

12:17

Oh yeah, Spencer Torkelson, but maybe I'm overrating him because I remember the brief early 90s sitcom, The Torkelsons.

Mickey Callaway

12:17

Amed Rosario is kind of hitting but not doing anything else. How much upside does he have left?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

He's kind of getting into Prospect's Disease territory.

His offensive improvement is for real but he's still not playing defense anywhere near the way he was expected to.

12:19

He's not a good enough hitter to be a mediocre defensive shortstop.

There's a *lot* of talent at the position.

Mark

12:20

Who do you have putting up the best numbers the rest of the way: Benintendi, Bradley jr, or Cain?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I think Benintendi and Cain pretty close and Bradley a tier behind.

Moose_Bolton

12:21

Do you think that there is any way that MLB could define a pitcher "win" so that if all you knew was that a pitcher recorded a W you could be fairly confident in how the pitcher performed?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Not really, because to make it an actual good stat, you'd have to transform it in a way that the people who actually care about wins won't want to use it

I think of Michael Wolverton's Support Neutral W-L.

12:22

That's not to say he didn't do great work with it.

Just that the target audience for using W-L is people who wouldn't accept the changes to make W-L not suck.

Xolo

12:22

Ignoring acquisition cost and years of control, who's the best pitcher whose name has come up this deadline season?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Define come up?

12:23

There was a brief period before the Nats started winning that Strasburg and Scherzer could have theoretically been in the trade market

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:23

Do you think Al Avila, whether from misreading the market or failing to eventually lower his asking price, will have failed if he does not trade Matt Boyd this month? Pitchers are volatile, and his value will never be higher. Hanging around to "mentor the young pitchers" is meaningless with the farm being so barren on the hitting side.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I don't think he *has* to trade Boyd this month, but I think they need to trade Boyd no later than this winter.

Hopefully they learned a lesson after Fulmer.

ryan

12:23

while sitting through the Cardinals' 10 run 6th inning at GABP, I painfully felt the Reds turn into sellers -- who do you think they should "sell" at the deadline, who do you think they actually will sell, and what do you think they can expect in return for whatever names you mention?

party

1

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I'm doing a fantasy trades trade deadline piece, in which I'll address this.

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