JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/23/20

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/23/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:19

I haven't had Arby's in nearly a year. My association of Arby's with Galileo the cat makes me feel sad when I see an Arby's now, not hungry.

12:20

And he was deprived of one final last roast beef. 24 hours before he died, when the vet thought he was recovering fast enough that surgery wouldn't be necessary, I skipped going to Arby's as we usually do post-vet since his jaw was sore. But he didn't get better and he never got his belated sandwich.

12:21

He had an abscess in his jaw line that was quite deep and the vet was reluctant to put a 20-year-old cat under unless it was absolutely necessary. Since his fever went down from the Thursday to Friday and the swelling went down, the vet thought it was safer to send him home to recover.

12:22

But he deteriorated very quickly over a 12-hour-period early Saturday morning.

James

12:22

What number is higher at the end of the season: number of Marlins wins or number of Marlins positive COVID tests?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

It's going to be close, I think. The positives should slow down, but there's a very good chance that a bunch of Marlins games just don't happen.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:23

Reminder: it is allowed to believe both that Manfred's punishment for the Astros was too light and that headhunting is wrong. (However, you are not allowed to be opposed to making faces at teams you don't like. That is great.)

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Manfred's punishment for the Astros wasn't too light because it was precisely the punishment he was allowed to give out without consulting the players first: none.

So giving the players immunity cost MLB precisely nothing.

12:24

For the same reason Fay Vincent's steroid memo meant nothing.

James

12:24

Let's pretend for a moment that Eric Hosmer's newfound launch angle is intentional and repeatable. How much would this change affect the Padres' moving forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

It's hard to say, but Hos walking the walk when it comes to launch angle is a very positive development. ZiPS already projected the Padres to do well while getting nearly nothing from first base, so anything more than nearly nothing is just a yummy cherry

Friend

12:26

Did you watch Pearson's start yesterday?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Only parts. Unfortunately, I kind of forgot he was starting and it was the fifth before I realized it.

RMR

12:27

Should the White Sox be worried about the back end of their rotation (Cease, Rodon and Gonzalez with Lopez going down)? Or is this just July?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I wouldn't be worried yet.

RMR

12:27

I know it hasn't happened yet, but how quickly do things like plate discipline stats stabilize (i.e. O-Swing, whiff rate, etc.)?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's hard to give an answer other than "quickly" because it's not a binary thing you can easily apply.

12:28

The larger the change in something, the fewer PA/BF you need to believe there's some change.

Isolated Thinker

12:28

I was stunned but not shocked that the majority of Marlins wanted to keep playing. I understand Rojas is the clubhouse leader but isn't this the kind of thing the manager should be handling? I was surprised to see Mattingly practically take a back seat trying to explain what's going on with his team. I think an important question is were there any consequences outlined or enforced for players going out and partying by management? Although it's not exposed to the media, I'd be surprised if Jeter is not around the team providing leadership and advice regularly. I understand the investigation is still pending, but is it premature to shine Mattingly and Jeter in a dark light during this "crisis"?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I certainly did on Twitter!

And got all the Marlins fans mad at me.

12:30

I'm of the belief that any Marlin front office member/manager who knew about the tests and had the power to prevent the team from taking the field ought to be suspended for the rest of the season. People who can't be trusted to aggressively contain COVID-19 spread endanger the entire 2020 season (and possibly, lives!)

People said to me -- well, yelled at me -- that it's not the job of the manager to protect against COVID-19, just get ready for the game.

Which is exactly the reason the country is in this mess. It's EVERYONE's job to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

12:31

You're not a human resources manager, for now you're a human resources manager/virus mitigator

I'm not a baseball writer, for now, I'm a baseball writer/virus mitigator

and so on for every job

(No, I don't know your job, it's the general you)(

BLT

12:31

Don't know all the ins & outs, but if Soto's situation happens in playoffs, will the home team's city have to clear the player to play? If so, that could lead to some interesting timing on decisions

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think this is a very fluid situation.

John

12:32

What do you make out of Dylan Carlson? Do you think he can cement him self in the CF role for the Cardinals given the struggle of Harrison Bader both last and this season? Not necessarily writing Bader off, he's still young, but i assume productivity has to matter more in the short season.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I'm not on the Bader panic train yet.

12:33

I think realistically, O'Neill/Fowler are more at risk

With defense included, Bader was hardly *lousy* last year!

RMR

12:33

Is Benintendi broken? Obviously early, but last year was concerning and it's looking like he's still kind of lost.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It kinda feels like he's in the wrong era.

He's not Desmond/Hosmer or anything

I think he'll be fine, but I don't think his ceiling is *super* high

RMR

12:34

Are the Rays going to ramp up their starters more as the season goes on? I wouldn't be as nervous with most teams, but with them I'm kind of wondering if this is going to be a season long strategy of pulling guys very early.

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