JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/23/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/23/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:42

I've grown to hate the word luck in baseball, since much of what we describe as luck is simply real things that cannot be measured for amplitude or direction

like a coin flip isn't luck. you can build a machine to reliably flip a coin a specific way, but most humans can't measure the variables that determine the coin flip on the fly

So for *all intents and purposes* it's luck. I don't think defense is a good explanation

oaktownblues

12:42

The ostensibly good A's offense has the worst road OPS in baseball. Is this just noise? Some sort of Coors-hangover like effect from playing their home games at SHP?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Most likely noise. I actdually have an A's piece tomorrow

Siddharth Nair

12:43

Hey Dan, is chili better to eat on its own or on a hotdog. I think it’s better on a dog personally

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Good chili is too individual to put on a hot dog

If your chili isn't great at eating by itself, you need better chili!

12:44

https://www.meatchurch.com/blogs/recipes/texas-red-chili

toodamntall

12:44

Would you project Foster Griffith at around his 3.61 xFIP for 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I would not

krob4385

12:45

How about that Zac Thornton? Do you see him having continued success at the major league level?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I remain skeptical

though I think he'll be at least OK

opifijikl

12:45

I think you've talked about ZiPS' "shape of production" and such. How do you visualize that or think about it - I'm still trying to wrap my head around the different possible shapes, and where they blur or are clear. Does that make sense?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

The thing is, shapes ALWAYS blur

12:46

You should have a fuzzy idea of production shape

opifijikl

12:46

Do you or ZiPS have any suggestions on how to increase the Red Sox home run totals?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

hit more :-)

12:47

SOME of it is park

especially for the guys who aren't crazy pull hitters

12:48

I really think the Red Sox should have gone hard after Paredes

alec_eiffel

12:48

Because its such a sellers market for starting pitching with so few solid choices to be had, why wouldn't the M's put an arm on the market, get a pretty good haul, and call up Anderson to replace said arm?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think that's a perfectly valid approach

bryce34

12:49

Which player saw the largest drop in projected WAR for the 2027 season during the first half of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Eduardo Tait

dan norman lear

12:49

If you are the acubs

Dan Szymborski

12:49

OH GOD AM I

Syndergaardengnomes

12:49

What is Anthony Volpe's trade value at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Shrunk quite a bit obviously. I think to really get a decent return, you need a team that has a really good theory on how to get him to meet the potential he looked to hafve

Athletics Fan Surrounded by Guardians

12:51

In "Veeck as in Wreck", Bill Veeck claims that he tried to buy the Phillies so he could stock it with Negro League stars for the 1943 season. He specifically says he would have signed Satchel Paige, Roy Campanella, Luke Easter and Monte Irvin.

Is ZIPs able to do translations of Negro League numbers to the AL/NL? And if so, could you please do one of your Zips "What If?" articles on how how good the 1943 Negro League Phillies All-Stars would have been?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I can, but we had a discussion a while back, and it felt a little awkward to translate Negro League numbers while we are explicitly considering them a major league

there's a Luke Easter time machine that we never used

Johnny5Alive

12:52

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like you've mentioned something to the effect the the zips projections for this year are are more predictive for the next year. Am I misremembering that? And if that's the case, is there a way to go back in time and see the previous year projections somewhere on fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

If you email me, I can give you the 2005-2026 team standing projections

sliderinthedirt

12:53

I think Arraez to the Rays is less about fit and more about how little production they’ve been getting from second base. .240/.330/.327 with four homers (Arraez also has four!) and negative defense.

Johnny5Alive

12:53

What does zips think went wrong with the Mets?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

they're th emets!

InsertWittyNameHere

12:53

A viagra comment and a link to a site called "meat church". Someone get HR on the line please?

notbrandonzink

12:53

Bit of a different question regarding how you handle SP in simulations.

If you're just going on expected stats, a straight "what's the best option I have for the next inning" would almost always end up subbing in a RP as soon as possible. Knowing baseball, we know that would be a great way to obliterate your bullpen.

How do you balance the better rate stats of a RP versus the additional value of a SP soaking up another inning but being worse at it when simulating games? It's something I've been struggling to find a good way to do (my current method includes an ERA adjuster, so once a SPs expected ERA is say 1 run higher than a RP, they get pulled, which feels inexact).

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