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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/3/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:22

(I'll circle back, and in the actual, not the Jen Psaki way)

12:23

Write now, Brown has peaking with ERA+s in the 98/99 range, which isn't bad

"write now"

12:24

Fredbird

12:24

is the Bryan Reynolds deal a fair comp to lock up Donnie baseball long term?!

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I'm about to get embarrassed when my dumb brain realizes who you're talking about, but you're not talking about Solano, are you?

Oaktown Blues

12:25

Dear Mr. ZiPS, there are too many Cal Raleigh homers these days. Please eliminate 3. I am not a crackpot.

Guest

12:25

What do you think of Matthew Liberatore going forward? Has he done enough to be looked at as a mid rotation guy?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think there is reasonable enough info to call him a mid-rotation guy. He's probably not going to have full season runs like the first six weeks of the season

Inverse Ohtani

12:25

So I came across the fact that you decided to give Austin Hedges a pitching projection for whatever reason. He has only the 45th worst ROS ERA projection and 2nd worst FIP projection (poor Luis Mey). He also has the 2nd best BABIP projection for a pitcher at .255! I don't even know what to ask other than "What!?".

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Most likely rounding on a guy with just a few projected innings

His 2026 projection right now is a .302 BABIP in 10 innings

Guest

12:28

when is MLB finally going to ban injuries

Dan Szymborski

12:28

If MLB had the ability to ban injuries, they'd just propose a rule that teams get two yellow flags a month they can use to undo an injury rather than just banning injuries

GA Blood

12:28

With sanitation workers striking in Philadelphia it's nice that fans finally think something in the city stinks worse than Brandon Marsh, who is pretty good! Are you buying his improvement in K%? A guy with a career .370 BABIP getting 6% more balls in play seems like a big deal.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

The contact rate is probably not QUITE justifying that big of an improvement, but he is having his best contact year

Lord Thunder

12:29

Is Mark Vientos just in a slump, or is this his true talent level?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

slump

12:29

Is ZiPS coming around on Tucker? He's already surpassed his ZiPS WAR projection for the year with the peripherals to boot.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Most of the Steamer/ZiPS gap is gone now

guest

12:30

I'm guessing it's Brendan Donovan but never in my life heard him called donnie baseball lmao

Dan Szymborski

12:30

ah, I hadn't heard that

12:31

I think the Reynolds contract is too rich. His FA is years off and STARTS at his age 31 season

Guest

12:31

Just traded Logan Henderson for Jo Adell in a keeper league? Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

meh

Honkus Wagner

12:31

what do you make of Jordan Walker at this point? change of scenery candidate? wondering if Bloom and co move him at deadline to help clarify playing time for others

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I think if anyone has ideas on how to fix him, it's tnot the Cardinals

Guest

12:32

Brenton Doyle’s home and away splits have been pretty striking since last season. If he gets traded, would his projections take a significant hit?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Generally speaking, home/away splits individualized are so noise that they're nto erally predictive until you have like a decade of play

Donnie Baseball

12:32

Don Mattingly? I don’t know what Zips says, but my gut tells me he’s in the decline phase.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

That was my first thought, but even my dumb brain won't be tricked into thinking Mattingly's still playing

Datt Mamon

12:33

Ranger Suarez is pretty much my only competent pitcher right now. I want to keep him for next year, but someone is offering Bubba Chandler. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I really like Bubba Chandler, but is this straight up?

Mike

12:33

How much have you played with visualization within your vast amount of generated data? I feel as though some simple applications of d3.js or even just some fancy tableau work could definitely add a lot to both the presentability of ZiPS as well as the ability to spot trends and insights.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm not really a big visualization guy

I'm good at reading a wall of numbers

12:34

and the type of person who cares about the ZiPS projections, whether professionally or for entertainment, REALLY seems to prefer I cram as much data into a space as I can

12:35

Now, if someone has an idea on a specific visualization that would help the public use the data, I'm all ears

Okra

12:35

In a year where selling teams don't have much to offer, will be tough for Arizona to resist selling, right? Would have 2 (Suarez, Naylor) of the 3 (Ozuna) best hitters available and likely the best/cheapest reliever (S Miller).

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I don't think they're resisting that well given that they've already dropped some hints

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