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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/3/25

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Rich

12:35

During his AAA rehab assignment (58 plate appearances), Zach Gelof has dramatically increased his walk rate (to 27.6 %) and decreased his strikeout rate (to 19%). Do you see any likelihood that this newfound patient approach sticks at the MLB level, and if so, how would that affect his ROS projections? He showed 30-30 potential in half a season in 2023, but a big strikeout rate (34.4%) hindered him last year.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

rehab assignments are weird; I wouldn't read TOO much into it

Dan 2.0

12:36

I would love to see a full analysis of the how each Braves hitter performed two years ago versus now.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

"Better"

Guest

12:36

Who’s got a better chance of being a bigger impact power bat for the Orioles ROS, Cowser of O’Neill? Thanks, Dan!

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I'd take Cowser, simply because any hitter coming back from a sore shoulder is going to worry me short term

War2d2

12:37

The Guardian had a pretty damning piece about the A’s situation, including the fact that Fisher doesn’t have enough cash on hand to meet the minimum amount needed to unlock the public funds and that The Trump Economyᵀᴹ has raised building costs enough that even with public funds he’ll have less than half the dollars required to get a stadium built. What’s your best guess for what happens now? Does he find an investor that will make up the difference, or do you think the other owners will finally have enough and force a sale? The latter seems to be what’s happening in Tampa right now. What’s your best guess for where the A’s are playing in five years?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I imagine if this goes into limbo without a conclusion and the A's are facing a sojourn in Sacramento without an expiration date, MLB will start turning the screws on them

12:38

If he did screw over John Fisher, I think that's one thing that everyone should agree to be happy with the president about

Mariners Truther

12:38

Is there any reason to have hope for Emerson Hancock?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

He does sound like an 1830s poet, so he has that going for him

12:39

He's just been a really easy guy for batters to wait on and hit

Ernie Brockoglio

12:40

The exact date Jac Caglionone will start mashing is ....

Dan Szymborski

12:40

When he gets a bag of potatoes

mmddyyyy

12:40

What FanGraphs content do you recommend to people that haven't visited the site before?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Laurila interviews

mmddyyyy

12:41

On the player side, what's the most popular jersey number?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Wasn't 22 the most popular at some point, or am I losing my mind?

polinating from my ipad

12:42

I watched the pianist this year. more or less sad than watching mike toglia play baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I mean more, seriously

drplantwrench

12:43

are the z expected stats (zOPS, zSLG) going to be on fangraphs' dashboards?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

eventually

I'm trying to figure out if a simpler model will work, or if it will lose to much value from latent variables

12:44

because right now, it's non parametric regression, so I can't give a simple formula for the website to deal with

Rex Manning Day

12:44

ZiPS' ROS wRC+ for Judge has come down a bit, but is still an absurd 192. Out of curiosity, what's the highest wRC+ projection you can recall ZiPS pumping out?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I don't have wRC+ all the way back, but I do have OPS+, let me pull that up

12:46

ZiPS had Judge with a 180 OPS+ coming into the season. The historical ZiPS projections of 180 or higher

Name MLBAM Year Tm Age PO BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR Barry Bonds 111188 2005 SF 40 LF .321 .541 .690 235 9.6 Barry Bonds 111188 2006 SF 41 LF .308 .493 .669 210 6.2 Albert Pujols 405395 2004 STL 24 LF .359 .448 .667 198 9.8 Barry Bonds 111188 2004 SF 39 LF .309 .504 .638 197 7.2 Albert Pujols 405395 2006 STL 26 1B .337 .434 .652 190 9.0 Albert Pujols 405395 2005 STL 25 LF .347 .435 .659 189 9.4 Albert Pujols 405395 2009 STL 29 1B .328 .433 .606 186 7.7 Albert Pujols 405395 2010 STL 30 1B .333 .442 .635 185 9.0 Albert Pujols 405395 2007 STL 27 1B .320 .426 .643 183 8.1 Mike Trout 545361 2020 LAA 28 CF .294 .438 .617 183 7.4 Mike Trout 545361 2019 LAA 27 CF .291 .433 .590 180 8.3

wow, that looks like garbage

12:47