JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/30/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/30/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:38

Howard extension was worse, topped off by the silliness of signing it years ahead of time

though Turner is struggling at short and probably needs tobe moved off the position

bndj88

12:39

I'd be OK with an increased penalty for HBP (maybe increasing # of bases throughout a game if you hit more guys) but only if we pair it with a strict definition of somebody being too close to the zone. We've all seen HBPs where the elbow is like 2 inches from the box. Drives me crazy, why do you get a free base for putting your body in the way of a routine ball?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I wish umpires enforced the hit by pitch rules once in a while

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:39

Does Adley Rutschman finish his career as an Oriole? Does he finish this season as an Oriole?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

No. Yes.

O'Votto

12:40

Hunter Greene on the block, that's the big Reds news this morning. Color me skeptical.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I am too

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:40

Does CJ Abrams' so far excellent 60 percent of his season burnish his projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

but it's not IMPLAUSIBLE

Yes

implausible for last question

Swings Low

12:40

The trade: K Alcantara, M Shaw and P Ramirez for Skubal. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think tigers

12:41

I think a Skubal trade, unless the prospects are crazy, will need to involve some lesser pitcher who can go into the 2027 rotation

12:42

Which is why in the fantasy trade for it, I sent Sheehan as part of the trade

war2d2

12:42

Dan! Daaaaan. The Cubs have been playing great baseball lately, even with a rotation made of two soft-tossing lefties and a whole lotta nothing else. If you’re Jed, do you go all-in on Skubal, or try to replace quality with quantity? Something like getting Castillo from the M’s (and hope a change of scenery turns it around), Detmers from the Halos, and some other third guy (maybe Peralta, but sounds like the Mets want an unreasonable return). Making the whole plane out of #4 starters doesn’t inspire hope, but it probably costs about the same in prospect capital as getting one Skubal, and does a little more to guarantee a trip to the postseason. What say you?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I absolutely *would* go all in on someone like Skubal

12:43

I actually ran the numbers and the Cubs are the playoff likely time in ZiPS has has the biggest dropoff in regular season win expectation vs. postseason win expectation

MF Luder

12:43

Casey Mize feels very Rays-ish as a trade target. Who do you see Tampa Bay targeting?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I actually think Mize is a really plausible target

GInfinity

12:44

Who do you think will be the best player traded this deadline not named Tarik Skubal? (Assuming Skubal is traded, of course)

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Mason Miller?

12:45

Miller is absolutely wonderful, but if the Padres can get real mid and long term rotation help, you have to consider it

samhorton

12:46

What type of package would you move Francisco Alvarez for?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I'd want a seriously high-end prospect, else I'm hanging onto him

MF Luder

12:46

The media covering the Red Sox have been all over Otto Lopez the last 72 hours or so. I too can read the back of his 2026 baseball card, but it just feels like the ultimate buy high. Am I missing something?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's buy high

12:47

As Ottos go, he's Hightower at the end of season 1 house of the dragon

fangraphsreaderbutwoke

12:48

Pirates are 9-22 against LHP and their entire healthy lineup is sub .680 OPS against (down to the .400s) aside from Bryan Reynolds. Can you think of two lefty mashers they could realistically add?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The aforementioned Myers is at least plausible

a lot more lefties available than righties inj bats

12:50

I wonder if they'd have been interested in miguel andujar, pre-broken wrist, after having had him before

Grandpaboy

12:50

Do you buy Owen Ayers as a future starting catcher? Cubs prospect nerds are adamant about not moving him for a rental…is he as good as this year’s numbers suggest.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Completely buy, no, but he's got a good shot

Domingo Ayala

12:51

How much do you trust minor league xwOBA?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

They're useful, not perfect, same as any expected stat

Phillip Denny

12:51

Reports are the Rockies are asking for either Arias from the Red Sox or Gillen from the Rays for Hunter Goodman. If that's truly the price, Goodman almost certainly stays put, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Probably

12:52

The Rockies are asking for the right guys!

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