JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/30/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 7/30/26

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Charles Bengal Tiger

12:53

Will Jesus Made, Leodalis De Vries, or Ethan Salas be called up to the bigs this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Made and De Vries no

Salas...maybe

He was just promoted if he, say, tears up AAA pitching for a month, I think you coudl see him at the end of the year

Phillip Denny

12:53

Mookie is slowly but surely creeping down the batting order, hitting 6th last night. He's still got something like 6/170 left on that deal after this year. When does ZIPS think the contract will be underwater?

Swings Low

12:54

Pick one team, who's Skubal pitching for next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Let's go crazy: Rangers

12:55

(I'm firing up ZiPS)

ZiPS actually think he's tipped into underwater territory now

I'd take Lindor

Phillip Denny

12:55

follow up, would you rather have 5/160 for Lindor, 6/170 for Mookie, or 8/270 for Tatis?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

(in this q)

Robert

12:56

Hi Dan. Does ZIPS under value Luis Lara the next 3 years? To me, there is a disconnect in Luis Lara ZIPS 2026 ROS, 2027 and 2028. Looks like, to me, that Lara is significantly under valued by ZIPS across the board. Lare looks like a .280 BA, 15. % walk rate, lead potential and 30 SBs. Thank you.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I think it's underselling him a bit

bndj88

12:56

Has it already been studied one way or another if a version of Pythagorean Record based on run differential excluding position players pitching and/or excluding periods where the game is out of hand (say 9+ run lead after the 5th for example) would be more accurate?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Not that I can recall off the top of my head

12:57

My gut is that the specific situations would get swamped in the rest of the data

dan999999

12:57

I saw a Banana League game the other day and while I don't want MLB to become like banana ball their way of doing walks would be fantastic for fixing the balance of strike outs and hits and push teams towards more athletic exciting players. I can't think of a reason besides tradition (and I'll admit that is a good reason) not to do so. Basically ball 4 means all runners can advance until the defending team throws the ball to all the defenders. The outfielders sprint in. The base runners go wild. 3 ball counts yield more hits because the outfielders have to play in. More expensive walks make the pitchers care more about control when they fall behind should mean less strikeouts and injuries.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I haven't given much though to the practicality of some Banana rules in MLB, but I do think that MLB should be more aggressive and wacky and at least TRY really crazy things in the minors and in spring training games

drplantwrench

1:00

is Neto for Franklin Arias a fair deal?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

It's not crazy, but I rather have the Arias side of the trade

(as in getting Arias)

Swings Low

1:01

How many runs per game would you project an elite defense (Cubs) to save vs an atrocious D (Mariners) with an average pitching staff (Braves)

Dan Szymborski

1:01

It's really hard to do any better than a run a game in defense from best to worst

and even a run is hard

dan999999

1:01

Pitchers go on the IL if the hit batter goes on the IL

Coop

1:02

I can’t quite grasp the interest in I. Seymour of the Rays - I hear about him as a sleeper-type commodity but don’t see it in the numbers. What am I missing?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Yeah, I like him, but I think he's just rated now.

ajake57

1:03

Who do you (and/or ZiPS) going forward, Rutschman or Moreno? ZiPS leaned heavily toward Rutschman before the season but I feel like that may have flipped by now.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I'm close on them, ZiPS likes Moreno rest-of-career more

Phillip Denny

1:03

I know word in Dodger land is Lauer and Call are being shopped. I would like to propose adding Teoscar Hernandez in there too. We know the market for RH outfielders is red hot and the Dodgers have to open up SOME type of OF spot given CF/RF/DH are locked up long term.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I would too

shoewizard

1:04

Seems like day to day the Diamondbacks deadline priorities are in flux. If they can only address one thing, what does ZiPS tell us about their greatest need going forward from among LHB (1b/DH?), Starting Pitching, or Bullpen Depth

Dan Szymborski

1:04

1B and SP

GInfinity

1:04

Would you say the Trade Deadline is less dramatic since the expansion of the playoffs, because more teams are holding out hope for a wild cart spot? If so, would moving next year's date earlier make it more exciting - is that even a reasonable goal?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Yeah, though I haven't confirmed it

Big Fan

1:04

I ask this from time to time, but a trade simulation tool like on Baseball Trade Values would be a fun feature for members to have. I think you have all the puzzle pieces to do it already, so pretty please give us yet another fun thing to do on the site.

Dan Szymborski

1:04

There have been mixed feelings in the past about doing that kind of thing

I'm thinking of building it in ZiPS during the lockout

Ropeia

1:05

Wil Austin Riley ever hit again and should Atlanta consider him as part of their future? Is he a change of scenery guy next year or this winter?

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