JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

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Orange stripey cat

12:29

Is Tampa going to make Dylan Carlson into the All Star that John Mozeliak was publicly fantasizing about 3 years ago?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

They could? But probably not

Flangraphs

12:29

Looking for a good flan recipe

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I don't really do desserts

Hon

12:30

Dan! What the heck are the Orioles doing? Eflin is a welcome addition, but their moves in the outfield are head scratching, and with Westburg on the shelf the Holliday promotion doesn't feel as sexy as I hoped it would...

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Eflin was, again, a big eflin deal

SudsTerkel

12:30

This White Sox thing...there's zero reason for hope as long as Jerry Reinsdorf owns the team, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Probably no hope

Guest

12:30

is there a way to estimate a player's 20th/80th pctl ZiPS based on their 50th?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I mean, the average of the two won't be FAR off, but when do you have 20th/80th and not the projection?

Thank you for the chat!

12:31

It seems a lot of teams are landing on similar team building strategies. Where would you look for a counter strategy to potentially stand out?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm not actually sure you can do a counter strategy

12:32

The problem is a great deal of what wins baseball games is "solved" especially offense

What you have to do is take advantage of your specific situation as best you can

12:33

like the Sox can't make an elite offense in a different way than most elite offenses

But they can take risks that the good teams can't

Oaktown Blues

12:33

Is ZiPS buying the Lawrence Butler breakout? Are you?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

ZiPS is not. I'm still on the fence

The Oriole Bird

12:34

Per your article this morning--which was great, BTW--the O's have the highest likelihood of winning the WS currently. Did I read that right??

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Yes, ZiPS already like the Orioles quite a lot

despite what Reddit thinks

All the playoff matchups got better rotation-wise

and this gives them a boost in division title chance, which is a HUGE deal

Guest

12:34

the Cubs have gotten smarter, Matt Shaw gets to "work on his defense" in AA instead of AAA to avoid service time accusations

Dan Szymborski

12:34

heh

MNLakes

12:35

In a case like the Twins lack of trades do you place more weight (blame) on ownership slashing payroll or the front office not pulling the trigger on making any impact trades?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

A lot of times its an ownership issue

The Rockies would be a lot better with different ownership or a change in ownership involvement

Colton

12:36

Who do you think is going to be the biggest mover in ZiPS projections this offseason? Jarren Duran?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Durran is up there

I did two articles on it!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-hitters/...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-pitchers...

mile low

12:36

if you were force ranking GMs is Billy Schmidt 31?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

It's hard to rate GMs apart from the rest of the organization

I'm quite confident that Rockies ownership had their hand in a lot of disasters for the team, such as the Desmond/Bryant signings and the quiet trade deadlines

near 100% on Bryant

romorr

12:38

Did you see the Holliday grand slam live, Dan? I know you're an Orioles fan, just curious if you got to enjoy it. With the struggles, that had to feel great for him.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Unfortunately, I missed it live

12:39

I mean, I had it on, but I was engrossed in my ZiPS wrapup article

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