JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:39

and I had the sound on something else

12:40

Depending on the timing, I either had a recording of Bruckner's 7th or Yanks-Phils

Steven

12:40

Does Witt need to best Judge in War by a fair amount to win MVP?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it depends just where Judge's numbers end up

If he hits 60 again, hes' going to be really hard to beat

even with modern baseball writers generally being better at this

12:42

Even in WAR it's pretty close and Judge has an edge on parts of WAR that are more SOLID. We know offense quite well. But things like positional adjustment and even defensive performance are a bit more abstract.

And I think it a close race, the tie goes to the solid

mile low

12:44

m toglia expected oba .348. if zips more bullish on him these days?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Mildly

James

12:45

Does 85 wins take the AL West? No one seems to want it.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

ZiPS has the average result of the eventual AL West winner as 86.7 wins

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:46

Crochet killed his own trade market right? No team's gonna trade for him without knowing what kind of extension it would take to get him to pitch in the postseason.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It added a whole bunch of risk for a pitcher who already had some risk

The Oriole Bird

12:46

Westburg injury hurts. You think Mayo is getting called up very soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

.I have no specific info on this

Rich

12:46

January 1, 2030. Where will the A's be headquartered?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Probably Vegas. In the end, cities usually cave and give teams whatever they want, sooner or later

Thought it would be funny if they're still playing in Sacramento

I mean, not for A's fans

but Fisher would be unhappy, and that makes me happy

Rich

12:47

What are Vaughn/Torkelson worth going forward. Does the Rooker Reclamation present a path forward in salvaging their careers?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Not much.

12:48

And sure, there's always a second or third chance, but even Rooker's value dropped to just about nothing at one piont

John B

12:48

What do you make of Jordan Walker (likely 2023 rookie of the year !) not being able to put it together in AAA in 2024? Is this common ? Or doesn't seem common

Dan Szymborski

12:48

It's unusual, but not THAT uncommon

Key Flaw

12:49

As an O's fan, I've always felt the dagger of the Glen Davis trade. Yeah, it was bad back then (especially since Randy Milligan was the superior player anyway), but who would have known that the players they traded away would be THAT good (heck, a straight up Harnish-Davis trade would have been a fleecing of the O's, let alone Finley and Schilling). What does ZiPS think of the trade at the time?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I haven't run it, but I'm certainly it would be pretty lousy

12:50

I've looked at the players before and while ZiPS was lukewarm on Finley, it liked Harnisch and Schilling quite a bit

Cito Gaston’s mustache

12:51

I known it is small sample size, but are you worried at all that father time has finally caught up to Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Hasn't it kinda already?

Until you get near 40, pitchers break mor ethan they age

and he's kinda broken a lot

matt w

12:51

About Henry Davis (and maybe more generally applicable): should I be saying "He can't possibly be as bad as he's looked in the majors if he's hitting this well in AAA" or should I be worried that the increasing gap between AAA and the majors means there will be more guys who mash in AAA and never figure it out in the majors? Or something else?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I've been tinkering with the data for Ben L. on the subject and I'm not actually finding an increasing gap. Some of it (though not in this case) appears to be people still haven't absorbed how different the offensive environments are between AAA and MLB right now

Chris Getz

12:53

If Miguel Vargas turns into a 2 win player, does that mean the Fedde trade was solid?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Maybe? On a win basis, probably, but the White Sox should be chasing ceilings, not dependable two-win guys

Re: Childless Cat Dude

12:53

Well as a catless child dude I can say you probably have less chance of being hit with warm vomit at 3 AM

CONCERNED PARENT

12:53

Dan I can't remember if you were someone that ever tweeted about Magic The Gathering or not, if so have you been playing Bloomburrow? Best set in years.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I haven't really played Magic since the 90s

Connecting…