JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

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DJ Tofu

12:54

How often do 3 year projections of ZiPS get refreshed?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

The ones on FG, just at the start of the season. I've been considering rerolling them at the ASB next year

Guest

12:54

the 20/80 based on 50, not 50 based on 20/80, Dan ; )

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Oh geez

yeah, I don't think you can get 20/80 from 50

I must have read the question wrong

Insert Witty Name Here

12:54

Do you think the MLBPA should push in the next CBA not a cap floor or ceiling, but a minimum standard of player facilities? Reading stories about how the A’s and Pirates etc skimp on stuff like training rooms and nutrition and all that, perhaps that might be a good win to get.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It would be nice, but they tend to focus on the most bang for the buck in terms of time

12:55

I honestly don't think the MLBPA is in a great bargaining position

One of the things that has always helped the MLBPA historically is owners being vain and undisciplined

12:57

But the owners have a built-in advantage: many of them can wait it out a *lot* longer than a 23-year-old prospect

Dmx

12:57

No pitch clock in the 9th inning- what say you?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Nah

I don't like rules that change

Vegeta

12:57

Heard Thunder Kiss ‘65 for the first time this week changed my world. Any unheard song similarly change your world?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Honestly, not that I can think of

Guest

12:57

How often do you watch games?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Any time there's a game on, there's a game on

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:58

Any chance we can get an update on the odds of the White Sox breaking the loss record?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I actually posted it last night on Twitter!

or this morning

hmm

hang on

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1818953594676138416

AL Melee

12:59

What's more surprising? The AL Central being more competitive than expected or the AL West being worse than expected?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

AL West probably

Junkballer

12:59

If you were to answer honestly, do we feel like any projection systems really can give an accurate view on what to expect out of Aaron Judge over the next 5 years? It just feels like there are so few 6'7, 295 pound humans out there, much less elite baseball players who put up career years at 32 when most others are declining. You could tell me he could turn into an injured pumpkin next year or could be doing this 5 years from now and both seem likely.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I'm not sure Judge is *particularly* difficult to project outside of health

we'll see in 2029! lol

Junkballer

1:00

It would be fun to run an analysis on historical ZIPs verdicts on some of the most perceived (at the time) lopsided trades and see which ones netted out lopsided in the long run

Dan Szymborski

1:00

I do individual trades once in a while. I think I did something on ESPN some years ago that was a ridiculous amount of hours for a single piece

1:03

I did do the worst trades of teh free agency era in 2012, but it wasn't a ZiPS thing

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/7853665/for-los-angeles-an...

zips fiend

1:03

Is the NPB still significantly better than the KBO, and are both better than AAA/AA?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I still get NPB as AAA1/2 and KBO as AA1/2

Natitude Adjuster

1:03

Have you ever messed around with including college stats into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Yeah, but there's such wide variance that I only include college stats when I MUST project a player and I have nothing else to go on

1:04

Basically, ZiPS will use college translations, where available, any time there is little to no professional experience

but I won't quote it unless I HAVE to

Like I couldn't get away with not projecting Crews

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