JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:39

Gallen

Key Flaw

12:39

Going to the real University of Maryland, we always said UMBC stood for "U made a bad choice". You went to Loyola, right? Did you have things like that for UMBC or other colleges?

laughing

1

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I don't actually recall anything like that

I was pretty busy with alcohol and getting stoned

trophy

1

Key Flaw

12:40

Have you tried Old World? It is supposed to be like CivIV (the best Civ) but modernized.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I have seen it but I have not played it

Kyle

12:40

ZiPS has underestimated how good the Orioles would be the last two years by quite a lot. My question is: why do you have such a bias against Baltimore and where do you think it came from? There can be no other explanation, especially random variance.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

lol

Unfortunately, ZiPS doesn't have any easy to find systemic bias

which is too bad, because I'd love some low-hanging fruit to get a boost in accuracy

John Mozeliak

12:41

speaking of mlb the show, have you gone thru the negro leagues storylines? edutainment!

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I have, it was a lot of fun!

Ethan

12:41

How much stock do you/zips put in minor league defense when projecting MLB WAR? I know you’ve mentioned a having a totalzone-esque stat for minors but do you regress it a lot?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Oh yeah, it's regresse da ton

I completed the NL storyline pretty quickly

12:42

and I have all the Programs done except for the July Awards which just dropped an the Extreme program, which is absolutely cruel

I'm at 58% in Extreme. I still have two XP awards to get another 15% (5,000 and 10,000 with Marte, Piazza, Wagner, Cain)

12:43

And then another 10% in the two remaining stat quests (I've done Marte and Wagner, but just unlocked Piazza and at 1 HR of 15 and I don't have Cain yet)

Which'll put me at 83% and the rest I'm going to have to grind out over time because there are no more Extreme Moments that I can do, and I'm touching the Conquest or Showdown

Eric

12:44

Dan, would love to be an 2024+ updated version of the Top Projection Projections Table from your 2020 Trout article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-inevitable-decline/

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I could do that

Appa Yip Yip

12:44

Is Davis Schneider the opening day 2b for the Jays next season? Sample size be damned he's 5'9 and hit a ball clear out of Fenway.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

He's certainly making his case

Exit Hits

12:44

Jose Altuve has outperformed his xwoba in almost every year since the release of the stat. Is there some property that allows hitters to maintain above expected numbers or is it dumb luck?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

There are properties that could cause a player to do that

xwOBA isn't designed to be overly complex really

12:45

I guess I should pull up zStat again? I don't have these all memorized

12:47

OK, just checked everything

12:48

zStats has underrated ALtuve too. 295/359/473 vs. 308/373/500. ZiPS naturally believes his line a bit more than for the average player

Guest

12:48

If the Padres make the playoffs, does Ha-Seong Kim get any MVP votes?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Yes

v2micca

12:48

If the Pirates are aggressive with Paul Skenes and he gets a taste of the Majors in 2024, is zips bullish or bearish on his 2024 numbers?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Don't have 'em yet!

Darb

12:49

Is Hader going to get $120 million?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I'm going to say no

v2micca

12:49

Considering the fact that banning the shift seems to have accomplished the goals of the commissioner's office, do you think even more restrictive defensive positioning rules could be a possibility?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Probably not

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:49

Fangraphs projections still see the Rays as favorites to win the AL east. A certain left handed starting pitcher disagrees. What does ZIPs think?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

ZiPS has the O's the favorite

It's regularly been 3-4 games higher on O's than FG projections since the start of the year

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