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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/18

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

The whole PPV was rather boring.

12:36

Even matches you think should have been good were dull as dishwater.

McCovey Cove

12:36

Nobody hits balls into my tranquil waters anymore. The last splash ball was on May 15th :(

Jose Iglemirez

12:36

Not sure I remember a season where there was only 1 90-win team in either league. Chances of it happening this year and is that a result of more competition in the NL or just inferior play?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

There are enough teams projected to the high 80s that it would be unlikely there would only be one team that actually only ended up breaking 90 in the NL

David

12:36

If the Cardinals end up making the playoffs, should Mike Shildt be MOY??

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Too many Cinderellas this year.

Johnny Coconuts

12:37

Red Sox have avg exit velo of 89.9, xBA of .276, and xSLG of .498. Meaning collectively, the Red Sox have the output of a top 75 hitter by that standard. Crazy, right?

Derek in Little Rock

12:37

I'm rooting for the Braves to win the NL East on your behalf, Dan.

Mitch

12:37

Do you think the Yankees should be giving Justus Sheffield the callup soon? He can't possibly be worse than what Luis Cessa has been crapping out.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I would.

All Cats Are Beautiful

12:37

Did anyone help you construct zips? Is there a secret Wozniak to your Jobs?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No, with the exception of Chris Dial and I talking about doing a projection system in the 90s.

So I'd give Dialman credit for spiritual contribution.

12:38

I don't believe I even TOLD anyone what I was working on.

randplaty

12:38

How do we evaluate Hunter Renfroe when it comes to defense? DRS and UZR disagree pretty strongly. And if UZR is right, he's worth very little. But if DRS is right, he's valuable.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Or it could be in the mdidle

Bingo

12:38

Are Luhnow and Theo Epstein overrated? Both have executed rebuilds well but trading Eloy and Gleyber might not look good in 5 years and for Luhnow, they cut JD and drafted Aiken and Appel.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I don't think they're overrated as long as one doesn't get the weird idea th at great GMs are flawless pearls

CamdenWarehouse

12:38

your reputation is so important that you've never had a joke reported as news by MLB

Dan Szymborski

12:38

That was Baumann, right?

April

12:39

A-Rod also was extolling the virtues of Jose Bautista as a current complete MLB player... maybe he shouldn't run a team.

hungery

12:39

i'm tired of food, but there are no alternatives.

James

12:39

Can the Mariners possibly contend past this year, or are they headed towards the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I think there are long-term questions, but they're not near O's yet.

Josh Nelson

12:39

Have you tried the new Lays potato chip flavors? The bacon wrapped jalapeno popper chips are decent. The deep dish pizza is pretty much pizza sauce chips. I won't touch the ketchup ones.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

They sound gross.

I don't eat junk food very often.

12:40

If I eat potato chips, it's usually because I picked up a big bag of Utz crab chips in one of my baltimore trips.

Baseball-Reference

12:40

Do you respect me

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Why wouldn't I?

Moose_Bolton

12:40

What is the best Reese's variant? I'm partial to the Nutrageous, but the Big Cups are also pretty good.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I don't really like peanut butter, I prefer just straight unsalted peanuts

David

12:40

As a fan, which team do you hate the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Growing up it would be the Yankees, but working in this field for a long time has kind of ironed out any real hatred for anyone.

Except Murray Chass.

Woot

12:41

Any ideas for new service time rules? I dont see service time manipulation as a HUGE problem currently, but the whole system seems less than ideal

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think the problem is that if you have bright lines, then there's always going to be someone manipulated by the team to be on their side of the bright lines. If it's more graduated, then you may end up with an overcomplicated mess.

Dusty

12:42

Thoughts on Twins prospect Wander Javier, do you like his upside?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Has a really interesting power upside, though still a lot of questiosn to be answered.

Connecting…

James

3:53

Does Ohtani win the ROY if he is able to make a few quality starts next month?

Bing Russell

3:51

What is your top ten players for a start up Dynasty league

The Bryce is Right

4:01

Harper to the Phillies before August 31 boosts the world series chances by ____%?

Seattle

4:09

Why are we so cursed?

C.J. Cron

4:10

Why am I not a Rockie? Fill a brutal need, not too expensive, not a rental and Rays clearly have no regular spot for me.

silvpak

4:15

has taillon quietly made the leap this year? absent two starts in april and one in may (where he still went six innings and k'd eight, despite allowing six earned), he hasn't allowed more than three earned in ANY start this entire year, has a sub 3.00 era, and nearly eight and a half k/9. given archer at the top of the rotation and that his various dings early in his career have actually served to not overload his arm/innings until maturity, i think we're looking at a decade of #1/#2 performance.

Over Here

4:16

Boston needs a lh reliever. Can they get one via waivers?

Bork

4:16

Think Donaldson gets moved? If not, will he even get a QO?

dave in slc

4:16

are any of miami outfield sierra, galloway, or dean worth spending $5 of my remaining $11 of faab money on to replace pence as a flier they could be something or sit tight w the $ for now?

AKA22

4:16

Any relievers left in the August trade market you would go after if you were the Braves GM? They still seem weak in the pen.

Dbo

4:17

Cincinnati chili is with cinnamon and sometimes dark chocolate, there's also Mexican chocolate chili

AKA22

4:19

Dusty Baker retroactive manager of the year 2017?

lee

4:20

The plan in LA seemed to be handing C over to Barnes (or Ruiz, or Smith in a year or two) after Grandal's contract expires, but with Grandal a top 3-4 catcher and Barnes's bat going all Chris Davis on us, what do you think the next 3 years of Dodger catching looks like?

$11 Worth of Taco Bell

4:20

This offseason how many years do the O’s give Trevor Cahill?

Jeffy

4:20

The pitcher after the "Opener" is the "Follower"

Bort

4:21

Any players come to mind that you'll be looking to buy low on next year?

$11 Worth of Taco Bell

4:22

Which AAAA hitter has the best chance of breaking out into at least an average MLB player if given the chance?

Jose Iglemirez

4:22

Ideas on who the second PTBNL in the Fiers trade will be? Better or worse than Blackwood?

Marshall

4:22

Suppose you wanted to trade Kershaw (current ERA+ of 160, but likely only 150 innings for the year) for a pitcher with 200+ innings. What's the lowest ERA+ you would accept for the pitcher you get back?

jake

4:23

is this the new amed rosario?

Chuck

4:23

How do you feel about Nathan Eovaldi going forward for the Red Sox? He's had a few great starts and a few not-so-great starts so far.

Better career?

4:27

Brian Anderson or Harrison Bader?

Josh Nelson

4:27

What is ZiPS projecting for Michael Kopech in 2018?

Justin

4:29

You think JD beats Betts? But Betts is so much bett(s)er!

CamdenWarehouse

4:30

didn't you have that mammal question two weeks ago?

4:33

Re: ad bars during games, other sports have begun to use this as a way to keep viewers watching during "downtime." I've seen football broadcasts show a live feed of coaches, players, etc alongside commercials. Win-win.

AKA22

4:33

You heard it here first - DeGrom for Cy Young and Scherzer for MVP. COULD IT HAPPEN??

David

4:33

Isn't a long reliever a failed starter anyways??

All Cats Are Beautiful

4:34

What's the r^2 between the current fWAR formula and a perfect measurement of a player's value? Where is the most room for improvement? Defense? Intangibles?

Moltar

4:36

Forget not marketing Mike Trout enough, why don't more people know about Mookie Betts? He plays for a first place Red Sox team! He's young and talented and fun! I'm an NL fan and I feel like I hear him mentioned once or twice a month at most.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

4:37

Do the O's make the playoffs again before or after Mars colonization?

The Shell

4:39

How come no one talks about those old projection systems like Marcel and Oliver anymore

Andrew

4:39

The NL award season is going to be interesting. With a weak field for MVP, I've heard talks of deGrom/Scherzer this year, and not to mention the Cy Young race. How likely is it that the voters start breaking from tradition and give deGrom a shot for one or both awards?

CubFan

4:40

You a fan of Taylor Ward ros, 2019?

Tom

4:41

NL chapter, eh? Will you give Matt Carpenter a good look despite his slow start?

CubFan

4:43

Not that it's overly important in the grand scheme of of things but who's catching on the south side of Chicago in 2019, Castillo or Narvaez?

Mark

4:43

Is Keegan Akin an option for the Os rotation next year? Leading Eastern league in ERA and strikeouts

Al Avila

4:44

Should Tigers fans trust me

Jim

4:44

Daniel Murphy a good fit for the Yankees with Didi out?

HappyFunBall

4:45

The pitcher who comes in after the "opener" is the "headliner". Just like with a rock concert.

Dan's Parents

4:48

We have never taken it seriously.

David

4:48

If you were the braves, and only have the funds to lock up 1 player to a long term contract who would you give it to? Freeman or Acuna?

Dusty

4:49

When you say a lot of questions need to be answered about Wander Javier, do you mean by me about him or about him that he has to prove?

Lunar verLander

4:50

In-season turnaround HAS to go to Kole Calhoun...right?

Confuzled

4:50

When minor league players have a projection that only has like 1 PA, is that predicting what they would do if in the majors currently? How seriously should I be looking at those?

Jim

4:50

Thoughts on Mike King from the Yankees?

David

4:51

Will Julio Urias ever pitch like he did as a prospect?

Fan

4:51

Projections like the Dodgers in terms of playoff success. I don't. Do you?

Hello

4:51

When should the Mets start worrying about Rosario?

Matt

4:52

Dan. Save me.

Bob

4:53

Jose Peraza, still only 24
2017
518 PA, .259-.297-.324-.622
2018
528 PA, .292-.334-.412-.745
Thoughts on his future outlook ?

Bort

4:56

Does Austin Barnes have a starting job next year?

Joey Bart

4:57

Should the Tigers have picked me #1 overall?

Oyster Burns

4:58

think gleyber is still hurt or slumping? the hip stuff can be scary

NC GO STL

4:59

Harrison Bader's upside?

David

5:00

How crazy is this offseason going to be?

Dbo

5:01

Nashville deserves an expansion team

Hello

5:01

Great, then should Jeff McNeil be the Mets' 2019 starting 2B?

Bread Gardner

5:01

So what did ZiPS say about the number of alien babes Kirk and Riker will sleep with?

David

5:03

Charlotte!

James

5:03

that was quick

Bread Gardner

5:04

Which one (current or historical) major leaguer would you want on your beer league softball team?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

5:04

Re: $300 per Orioles run scored, whiskey per run allowed, what if the rules were that the moment you became incapacitated/unable to keep drinking, you'd forfeit the rest of the season? How many games do you think you could make it? Could you last through a grand slam? What if a three-run homer happened later in the inning? You could die before you earned a single dollar!

Matt

5:05

What about great GMs as flawless clams? Sans-sand, if you will.

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