JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:24

thought I've probably tried a good percentage of over the rhine places

like I like five on vine

12:26

As I get older and my digestive system becomes more and more grumpy, I'm less inclined to eat full meals at restaurants

druidiful

12:26

So does this mean that you are finally going to release the actual creator of ZIPs, if you are releasing everyone from your basement?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

No, he's in the oubliette. Didn't say i was released him

Matt

12:26

If Soto and Judge finish 1st and 2nd in WAR at the end of the season will this be the first time it’s happened? What’s the closest it has come?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

This will be the first time they finished 1 and 2!

Though I'm guessing you mean teammates! :-)

12:27

now, schilling/unit did it in pitchers with the diamondbacks

12:28

among htiters, Griffey and A-Rod in 1996

12:29

Boggs and Greenwell in 1988

Bench and Morgan in 1972

12:30

DiMaggio and Gehrig in 1937

Ruth and Gehrig in 1931

12:32

The Orioles swept both 1-2 in different combos from 1896-1898

Anson and Gore in 1880

12:33

Decan White and O'Rourke in 1876

and then a four year run of boston red stockings

top1214

12:33

How does Zips react to someone like Paul Dejong's last couple of years? He looked totally cooked for a couple of years that should've been prime seasons, had a good first half last year, then couldn't hit at all, then to being close to league average this year. I have whiplash on him.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Generally it takes the middle ground

12:35

It's a little under and the shape is slightly different (ZiPS had less offense but more defense), but ZiPS had DeJong at 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he's at 1.4 WAR in 393

Mike Elias

12:35

Which of the O's lurking outfield prospects do you trust the most to make a real major league impact in '25/26? Bradfield, Fabian, Beavers, Honeycutt? Also what if Bradfield made the playoff roster this fall as a pinch runner / defensive replacement...

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Bradfield and Honeycutt are the most interesting

Fabian's going to drop off *hard* in ZiPS

and Beaver hasn't been that reat

Seamus

12:36

What do you think about Masataka Yoshida at this point? He’s been good-to-great since the start of July after dealing with injuries, and he had a great stretch last year before wearing down in the second half. I love watching him hit, but seems hard to see how he fits into what will be a crowded Red Sox lineup once all the top prospects start debuting next year.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Dunno, I'm still wondering if he'd play better defense in anothe rpark

12:38

Because him being only DH really hurts his flexibility. He can hit, but it's not THAT amazing if you MUST DH him

MF Luder

12:39

Help me finish this sentence. Kyle Tucker returns and Houston wins the...

Dan Szymborski

12:39

..prize for being the large American city with the least zoning laws

OH GOD FEWEST

Bash Bros

12:40

What are the odds Judge gets to 500 hr and Soto gets to 600 hr?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

ZiPS has the first at 57% and the second at 53%, so that comes out at 30%

they're probably not THAT independent because they'll correlate slightly because of the chance of any significant change in offensive levels

though ZiPS doesn't really address a model of drastically changing league offense

Brian Cashman

12:41

Seems like Rubenstein really may spend with his new toy, the Orioles (taking on 2 salary dumps at the deadline!). Should I be concerned they may bid on a certain high OBP OF bat hitting free agency this offseason? What other single free agent acquisition would make them take the biggest leap from "very good" to "whoa, scary" in 2025?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I'm not sure he'll go THAT far into spending. Though the team totally could

I would like to see a run at locking up some of the team's young players

because the O's have done precisely none of that lately

Factory of Sadness

12:42

Jhonkensy Noel has been good for a 143 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+ in his first 94 PA, for a 0.6 WAR so far. How much does a first 100 PAs like this swing ZiPS for a new callup—and does it matter that he's doing this mostly as a part-time player as opposed to an everyday one (although it looks like that's changing)?

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