JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:43

Doesn't really matter, though ZiPS doesn't consider pinch-hitting PAs

(their inclusion actually makes the model slightly worse)

Pedro Judge

12:43

This Judge 22-24 run feels like a hitter's version of Pedro doing THAT during the PED era. I know that's the point of using WAR, though.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

He's a Hall of Famer now for me

Stu

12:44

I must say I found it interesting to read recently that Anthony Rendon is a "veteran leader."

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Well, not all leaders lead their teams to good places!

Alby

12:44

Has intermittent fasting helped you enjoy every remaining sandwich more?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It does, though I'm careful to not eat like a lunatic on eating days

The person who asks the lunch question

12:45

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I have some leftover linguine with white clam sauce in teh fridge

MF Luder

12:46

Why can't Boston upset someone in the ALDS?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Maybe they're not mean enough to people

I am the apple

12:46

Were Seunghwan Oh to have played his whole career in the MLB, what does ZiPS think his career WAR would be? We only got three seasons of “The Final Boss,” but they were pretty promising for an older reliever

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I can't do that quickly, but ZiPS was always a fan

99fletching

12:47

hi dan, what's the deal with ronel blanco? specifically, he's on track to have the lowest babip ever for a guy over 100 ip (currently .199). does anything about his profile indicate that he is genuinely elite at suppressing contact, or is this just an all time great variance season, albeit a feel-good one ?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

ZiPS thinks that he ought to be *slightly* better than average relative to Houston's D, but nothing like a .199

Bobby Witt

12:48

I'm not saying the Orioles regret choosing Rutschman, but how lucky are the Royals that Witt fell to No. 2?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

They're quite fortunate of course!

12:49

Witt is ridonkulous

Sam

12:49

It seems Craig Breslow has done a pretty terrible job of talent evaluation for the redsox. Not adding in the offseason and then not selling at the deadline if he wasn’t going to actually address any of the team’s holes. How would you rate his tenure so far

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Still an incomplete. It's hard to evaluate GMs/presidents quickly because organizations as a whole, including ownership, make decisions

you don't really have the transaction satrap as a model anymore like it was in a majority of places

James

12:50

Should a Yainer Diaz extension be on the table? Or are we not sure that he sticks at catcher long enough?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I'm on the fence there. The chance that he moves off catcher down the road is significant

and there are four years until FA

Honkus Wagner

12:52

Do you see Santander getting a new deal with the O's? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about right?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

ZiPS actually suggests 3/60 before the season!

So it would be more now. Hang on

well, 3/59

before the season

12:53

I'll have to come back around

Bob Loblaw

12:53

Juan Soto will finish the top _ hitter of all time

Dan Szymborski

12:53

staring

James

12:53

Astros have been playing .600 ball for 3+ months now. Its a long shot, but where do you put the odds of passing one of the other division leaders and getting a bye?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Fairly low because they have to beat *three* teams

12:54

There are fewer scenarios in which the AL East winner slumps

because if only one of the Orioles/yankees slumps, the *other* team wins the AL East

Reframing Framing

12:54

Now that analytics have proved that pitch framing is indisputably more valuable than preventing wild pitches and stolen bases, when will the #2 position be renamed, "Framer," instead of, "Catcher?"

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Well, framing is still part of catching

12:55

it's just specific location-based catching

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