JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/24

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Dan Szymborski

1:09

About 20% of offensive WAR, assuming no other changes

Rob Manfred

1:10

ESPN ran a story this morning about introducing a 6-inning minimum for starting pitchers. What is your preferred remedy (if any) to restore the prominence of the starting pitcher?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

It's a tricky thing to manipulate, because you don't want a scenario in which you end up with more injuries

1:11

Though MLB has the right idea, in that changing rules is one of the best fundamental ways to change styles of the game

1:12

Pizza Cutter wrote about it yesterday

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/93005/make-the-fences-...

and it's a subject I talk about

(nto the innings change specifically)

Guest

1:12

1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he's at 1.4 WAR in 393

someone's gotta be in that 55th percentile! (do they?)

Dan Szymborski

1:12

well, 1% of players would hopefully be precisely there!

David Forst

1:13

What happened to Ryan Noda?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

He was a stopgappish type 1B who had a nice little BABIP-aided run last year and got off to a horrible start this year

1:14

ZiPS only had him at 210/331/381 coming into the season and the other projectiosn weren't that different

John

1:14

Does ZiPS account for minor league struggles of a player like Bobby Miller, or does it depend solely on past MLB performance?

Dan Szymborski

1:14

it takes minors into account

except rehab

Pat

1:15

Are we at an all-time low in veteran all time hitting greats..at least as far as traditional stats are concerned? Freddie Freeman is the active leader in hits, runs, RBI..yet ranks below 140th all time in each. Can't decide if this is normal or a weird one off.

Dan Szymborski

1:16

We're definitely fairly low in veteran hitters right now

There are only four hitters 35 or older with one WAR this season: Santana, d'Arnaud, Rojas, J.D. Martinez

1:17

so if you have fewer veteran guys, you're going to have not as mny with lofty totals

john

1:17

Feature request, feel free to toss it in the trash. Fangraphs does their trade value series and they rank farm systems, but I would love to just see every organization ranked by surplus value, major leaguers and minor leaguers together. Baseball trade values kinda had something like this but they went behind a paywall, and I would prefer if ZiPS were used.

Dan Szymborski

1:17

I need to figure out an automated way to do it

mile low

1:17

Zips had Wyatt Langford .346 wOBA for year. Looking like actual will be lower. Would you still bet future all-star?

Dan Szymborski

1:17

AN all-star appearance? Sure, though the upside has come down a bit

Guest

1:17

Is Juan Soto more likely to age worse than average since he has “old person” skills and his bat speed is below average?

Dan Szymborski

1:18

It's quite possible, but remember, these are percentages - young player skills don't necessarily mean aging well and vice versa

Guest

1:18

if the Orioles had a dollar for every top prospect callup who struck out 50% of the time in a short first stint, they'd have at least two dollars, which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice in one year. (it would be rather less weird from the Rockies)

someone who wants to "call out" projection systems for being too low on Judge should aim at Steamer instead of ZiPS, but I guess those guys don't hold weekly chats

Dan Szymborski

1:18

I don't really "do" projection wars

1:19

I present my product, give as much information away as I can justify, and as much detail of the model as I can, and let results speak for themselves

Guest

1:20

btw did the idea to update those 1x/year get anywhere?

Dan Szymborski

1:20

I'm thinking of doing ASB next year

or maybe July 1st

Phil

1:20

Interesting about rehab. Do you just ignore those stints? I always wonder what can be learned from them, particularly right now whem Boston media is reporting breathlessly on Casas's at-bats.

Dan Szymborski

1:20

I just find they create noise

wheelhouse

1:20

wait, who told that person that juan soto has below-average bat speed

Dan Szymborski

1:20

i assumed that bat was a stray word added

dontcare

1:20

I'm going to be very sad when two of the three NL West teams have to face off in the WC round