JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/24

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Todd Bonzalez

12:56

How likely will Reds win both the Cy Young and MVP, but miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Maybe one-in-50?

Mike

12:57

What are the chances both the Dodgers and the Braves miss the playoffs this year? That seemed unfathomable back in April.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I don't have it in front of me, but really long

The Dodgers COULD lose the division

12:58

but they're 8 1/2 games ahead of the third wild card team that *isn't* the Braves (the Mets)

12:59

and 11 games ahead of the next teams (Cards/Reds/Giants)

Sam

1:00

How would I go about transitioning the "Clutch" stat to a "Clutch+"? Is it as simple as multiplying the current equation by 100?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

not REALLY

you'd need a Clutch rate

then you coudl do it

James

1:00

Lets (very hypothetically) say that Reinsdorf hires a top end GM, gives him a top 5 budget and then stays away from the front office. What is the earliest the White Sox could make the playoffs again?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

2027?

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

1:01

According to the Fangraphs WAR Leaderboard, the White Sox have an aggregate team WAR of 1.9, surpassing the total of the 2003 Tigers at 1.7. Of course, this is still a work in progress for Chicago as we can't yet account for the final 1.5 months of a depleted roster facing off against a bunch of contenders (Mets, Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, Padres, and Giants, per Davy's article). Would you bet on the White Sox to finish with more wins AND accrue more total WAR than the 2003 Tigers, would you? Losing means chugging a blended up can of skyline chili.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Wait, what do I get if I win?

I'm not drinking a chili smoothie on a close bet

Teddy

1:01

How do you project defensive value of prospects.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

erroneously for sure

ZiPS has a TZ-esque measure for minor league defense

1:02

I have the exact hit location of all balls hit in the minors and a probability-based method like David Pinto used to have

Down by the River Ryan

1:02

You have said that bigger change = more signal. What do you make of Tyler Fitzgerald's power?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

The improvement should be pretty big

1:03

though his power boost hasn't quite matched the unerlying data

McGraw45

1:03

Merrill is on track for a 4+ war season and Zips has 3-year projections of ~1.4 war a year. Is that because of a high BABIP/low walk rate or just the nature of the beast?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

It's because those are the preseason projections

ZiPS is obviously going to be quite a lot more optimistic now

1:04

Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

.707 SLG

1:05

At what point does ZIPS basically give up and say, "I guess Judge is just... this guy now"

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Except here's the thing - at his level, the risk is *all* one side

so even if you assume a .700 SLG is his baseline, that doesn't mean he's equally as likely to become an .800 SLG guy as a .600 SLG guy

Phil

1:06

Kristian Campbell's teammates are apparently calling him "Barry Bonds." I guess I can live with his being not quite as good as Bonds, but should he be higher on prospect lists than he after the stretch he's had in AA?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

He's certainly going to move up quite a bit by ZiPS

Joseph

1:06

Dan, have seen a few mentions in articles lately about "X player has increased his bat speed by X mph and his numbers have jumped".

Dan, have seen a few articles about "X player has increased his bat speed by X mph and his numbers have jumped" lately. Outside of the obvious correlation that higher bat speed leads to higher exit velocities, have you seen any work in terms of in-season bat speed changes and whether they correlate to anything meaningful? Are they statistically correlated to increased results? How long does it take in terms of time duration to become sticky? What they normal baseline is for bat speed fluctuations and how much deviance one needs to see to matter? Thank you!!

Dan Szymborski

1:06

It's probably good, but I think people jump the gun a little too much

now, bat speed correlates highly with other things that we DO know are predictive of better results

1:07

but even with that highly likely hypothesis, people should be careful direct claims with numbers

Jake A

1:07

Does ZIPS incorporate Statcast data? If not, is it feasible as an avenue of improvement in the future?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Yup - I forget off-hand that entered the main model, I think 2019?