JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:04

This is a chat.

ashtray

12:04

ZiPs really does not seem to like Andrew Vaughn despite all of the "most polished hitter" reputation he's getting. What's the issue?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Well, ZiPS is not a scout and it's going to be skeptical of most college players.

Until they do stuff in the minors.

12:06

And it wasn't particularly enthralled by his minor league performance, which was largely walk-driven.

Blue Morpho

12:07

Any takeaways from Mize's first start?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I thought he looked quite poised for a guy making his debut. His slider and splitter were fooling the Sox a lot, but he did hang a few mistakes.

And that's one of the biggest differences between high minors and majors: the margin for error.

Cakes&Kakes

12:08

Remember Val Majewski? He seemed like a cool dude. Also, Remember Mike Yastrzemski? Whatever happened to that dude, so many promising outfielders, so little production, glad Dwight Smith, Jr. is covering the corners

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm not actually sure what the question is.

12:10

I think the O's can be forgiven for missing on mini-Yaz. It's not like he had a long career of minor league slugging.

Jon

12:10

Proposal by Cubs announcers: split into three leagues: East, Central, West. Top two from each with a couple wild cards. Greatest idea ever, yes?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Meh

Unless we're talking no-division leagues

sean

12:11

how quickly do you expect victor robles' sprint speed, and many other laggards, to revert closer to last years speed?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I haven't studied the direct predictability of sprint speed statcast on sprint speed statcast in short periods.

I would imagine it's not a volatile measure and mostly injury related.

Trent Hauser

12:12

Jason Heyward! What to make of this? Is he this year's Ian Happ for the Cubs - serious rebreakout but SSS?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

We've been down this road before with him. I'm going to be skeptical for now.

sean

12:14

lindblom or kuhl ROS?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Depends on your needs. Kuhl is probably the safer choice, but Lindblom is for the gambler.

David K

12:16

Is Dom Smith for real? Thoughts on Lugo to the rotation?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think there's a good chance that his baseline's moved up a bit, probably more than for someone like Heyward. He's really going all-in on the pitches he likes this year. His future in NY is probably safer if DH doesn't go away again

Isolated Thinker

12:18

Which was more dangerous: Clevinger and Plesac going out and exposing themselves or Laureano activating a brawl? My point is I don't think the Laureano suspension was adequate enough to deter future brawls, while Clevinger and Plesac have missed significantly more playing time. I understand that what Clevinger and Plesac did was "premeditated" as opposed to Laureano who was acting in the heat of the moment. Your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think Clevinger and Plesac violated by design as you note and I think from a punishment standpoint, you have to consider that as significant.

Activating a brawl is bad, but he was also provoked and while that doens't excuse him, it's a mitigating factor.

12:19

MLB generally underpenalizes for brawls I feel and fighting, but that's something that MLB has to deal with on a systemic level, not just singling out someone as an example.

I mean geez, Carlos Quentin got 8 games for breaking Greinke's collarbone.

Andrew

12:20

Altuve has a .202 BABIP so far...his exit velo is where its always been, and his hard-hit% is as well. His Ks are up a bit (they've been climbing the last few years as he's hit with more power). Is he fine or not fine?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Sounds like a zBABIP question!

12:23

(Srory, opening will get back to this Q when it's open)

Guest

12:24

Is Thom Brenaman employed by Fox Sports, or by the Reds? Should they just fire him? Will they?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I'm not sure what the exact legal situation. I *think* that from a technical standpoint, he works for the Reds *and* Fox Sports while the Reds *and* Fox Sports have a close partnership

12:25

I'd personally fire him.

Guest

12:25

are you a chill meat purist? I made some with pork that was good.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think it ought to be beef, but another meat + chili I feel is more genuine than beef + all sorts of stuff thrown in

Jake

12:25

Putting away the very much written rule of journalistic objectivity, you're rooting for the Padres, right? How can you not?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Fandom for me is complicated since there are so many levels. Things I like. Things I like because they make me look smart instead of dumb. Things I don't like but are objectively good.

12:28

I like the Padres and hope they do well, but I don't know how much of it is me wanting to not look dumb since I projected them aggressively. It's hard to compartmentalize that kind of thing.

I do strive to be objective beyond all things. I mean, I make lots of jokes about the Rockies, but when it comes to the bottom-line analysis, I try to be dispassionate.

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