JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:29

That doesn't work for any journalist and I'm casting no shade on anyone. That's just works for me and the things I do.

Ben Davis Bunts

12:29

True or False: Chris Paddack is the Padres' fourth best starting pitcher

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'd say second. I think Lamet's just on antoher level at the moment. I'm not sure Richards is actually better, we rarely see much of Richards

Joe

12:32

For comparison sake (to Tatis) what did ZIPS predict Trout would do in years 3 through 10?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Off hand, I think ZiPS had Trout 2 WAR or so under Tatis if you start Tatis with a baseline of 140 games

(which is an important caveat)

12:33

It's also important to remember at the end of my theoretical eight year Tatis extension, Trout will be 37!

Guest

12:33

Obviously a small sample, but any cause for concern with Giolito’s control (or lack thereof) thus far? It looks like ZiPS still loves him.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Some. The more robust season-to-season ZiPS model would be more worried than the simpler in-season one.

Trent Hauser

12:33

What's Yu got to do? I feel like if he were an American pitcher we'd be celebrating more than just the breadth of his repertoire

Dan Szymborski

12:34

He's been tremendous!

Ben wrote about Darvish a couple weeks ago.

12:35

I'm waiting for a suitable time to write about him

Joe

12:35

Hosmer is hitting the ball in the air this year...how long do I have to wait to believe he actually made a change and this isn't a fluke?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I think there are good reasons to be hopeful.

New Bork

12:35

Will you be replacing Thom Brennaman?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Ha. No.

12:36

At best, I'd be occasional third dude color guy who once in a while has a stat or a dumb joke.

Sonny

12:36

Xander trade rumors on MLB site are confusing. For as bad as Boston has been do they really not see X as a contributor on next good team?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Trade rumors are always confusing. They conflict and teams sometimes leak things to specific reporters for specific purposes.

Cakes&Kakes

12:37

Just throwing out Mo Gabba's name for anyone who hasn't heard it or his story. Support his family, and remember life is hard, but you can strive to make it better.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Mo Gaba was a very sad story, definitely look it up people!

12:38

Those ZiPS for Tatis Jr. are otherworldly. If a breakeven offer based on those astronomical numbers is 8/225 does it make sense for the Padres to start with something like 8/180 and work up from there this offseason? Or keep a 230+ number and try to make it an 11-12 year deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

As I said, if I'm the team, I certainly don't start near those numbers!

I'd start at 8/150 and try to sell it as a 50% bump on Acuna's deal

Trent Hauser

12:39

Mize and Luzardo? Two guys with legit league ace ceilings?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Yes

J-Lo (not that one)

12:39

Dan did you see Tarik Skubal's debut? Any reactions?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Unfortunately Skubal's start I missed.

12:40

I have a tendency to be watching the wrong games. I missed Pearson's debut too.

Brian O.

12:40

Yes hello is there the option of robot pitching yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Only in Super Baseball 2020 and Base Wars.

La Brum

12:41

Can we just accept that Tim Anderson is a true 400 BABIP hitter and move on

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It would be fun if he were, of course

Jefferson

12:41

Does Zips see anything different between Vaughn and torkelson? Most scouting reports seem interchangeable between the two

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it's going to be another year before you really get good insight from ZiPS

ZiPS has a good record with prospects, but ZiPS is also, again, not a scout.

Sam

12:42

Was there a less surprising response to Thom Brennaman's comments last night than Curt Schilling lamenting cancel culture?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I have problems in a lot of the cases we've seen, but Brennaman is nothing like this. He wasn't making a really dumb joke in private, he wasn't sharing an unpopular political opinion, he wasn't a private citizen shamed by a local paper on a slow news day. It was a straight-up nasty slur that he was comfortable saying in his workplace *two seconds before going live to thousands and thousands of people*

Brennaman *should* be fired for this.

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