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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/26

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Dan Szymborski

11:59

Frivolity may now commence.

ThisIsBob

12:00

Not going to lie I expected Baez 2.0 with PCA. Are there any examples of players that dramatically improved their plate discipline and increased their walk rates like PCA has?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Morandini

12:01

Votto wasn't born the plate discipline god either

12:03

Jose Bautista too, but it could also be the rushed nature of being rule 5

I would suspect Sosa too, but we don't really have out-of-zone data for him

(of course, we don't for Miorandini either)

It's kinda weird that Morandini was the first name I thought of

Fangraphs Man

12:03

if the White Sox end up making the playoffs, would they be the team with the lowest pre-season FG/ZiPS playoff odds to make the playoffs? They came into the season at .6% to win the division, 1.2% chance to make playoffs (now at 56.3 and 68.7% respectively)

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I'm not sure if it's THE lowest, but it's gotta be down there

lemme see if I can glean from a quick glance

12:05

2012 Orioles were less likely

12:06

2012 A's too

Phil

12:06

During Mickey Gasper's first call-up this year, with a mustache, he had a wrc+ of 70. In his second, with a Van Dyke, he has a wrc+ of 366.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

It's fair

The fact is, for the full bush 1970s mustache as a position player, you need to hit for power

12:08

Gasper's more a plate discipline guy

12:09

and facial hair for plate discipline guys should be a little more tailored. He probably needs to thin it up a bit and make it look more like he's auditioning to be a conquistador

warpath

12:09

Hey Dan, thanks for the chat!

I sadly have to ask about the decline of Ha Seong Kim. He has a -29 wRC+ (yes, negative) in 85 PAs (31 games) this year, with peripherals that really don't paint a much better picture. The once-stellar defense has looked a little shaky by both the advanced stats and the eye test. He'll be 31 in October and is coming off a slew of injuries.

Does this look like the end for him? It pains me to ask because he's been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years, but it doesn't look good.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Injuries are a really complicated thing in this, but that's not that helpful because, as you say, 31 in October

and one of the many reasons injuries suck is that you sometimes don't get back

12:13

ZiPS is brutal

That's through games of the 15th

oaktownblues

12:14

Curious what ZiPS sees for Zack Gelof in 2027. Seems like a hard guy to project given his trajectory so far

Dan Szymborski

12:14

ZiPS is pretty solid on him. 248/321/431, 108 OPS+, 3.4 WAR

(these are neutral park projections right now)

Phillip Denny

12:17

what are the chances Gunnar is just one of those "peaked at age 22" dudes? You'd never project it but we know it happens sometimes.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

It's an actual possibility, and people tend to underrate just how often that actually happens

A lot of guys decline after their early 20s or at least don't improve, especially if they're already good

toodamntall

12:18

Last chat I was asked to supply my biometrics.

I am a reasonable 6'4, but I live in China and the park adjustment is like 7'1. My wife's catchphrase whenever I smash my head into something is 'too damn tall.'

Dan Szymborski

12:18

If you have a catchphrase about being too damn tall and you're having injuries related to your height, I think toodamntall is a fair characterization

12:19

Now, if you were toogoddamntall, I think you'd have to be at least 6'7 and for toofuckingtall, 6'10

Ragbrai

12:19

Better to hold Singer and Manaea in an NL 5x5 or drop and get relievers to protect WRA/WHIP?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

In most situations I'd look at the relievers available, especially with singer

JasonT

12:19

Good morning Dan, Brandon Pfaadt has mostly been terrific since returning from the minor leagues. Do you have any insight as to whether a real change has taken place and he can reach a sustained level of good performances?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

It's hard to say, a lot of it is he's not allowing much solid contact, but his stuff also hasn't really changed, as far as I can tell

and I bet if I look up the pitching bot/stuff+, he will have barely moved

Though I'll certainly take him OVERperforming his peripherals for a change!

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