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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/26

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shandykoufax

12:21

Looking at playoff standings and interested in division rivals where the game with better division odds has worse WS% odds: (Mostly Phillies over Braves). This despite ZiPS seeing a (somewhat) small talent gap between the two. Is it just the Phillies rotation is so much more dangerous when bottled up in a short series?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

That is precisely it!

coolidge

12:21

$40 trillion

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Yup

Ragbrai

12:23

Thoughts on Wilkinson in SF? DOes he start ROS for SF and what is his long term outlook?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think he'll stick in the rotation. Like, what else do the Giants do? Houser doesn't tell them much for 2027.

12:25

And I don't think he's less worthwhile to look at than,s ay, Anthony Molina

12:27

Now actual outlook, let's not go nuts, he doesn't throw very hard at all and his stuff otherwise isn't crazy good. He's more going to be a Kirk Rueter type

Ragbrai

12:27

I was at th Brewers game Tuesday night. Quite the evening. The 8th got out of hand though. If we can walk a batter without pitching to him can't we just concede a game without playing the final innings? It almost wasn't even fun (after awhile) watching them lob balls into home plate.

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I mean, teams can choose to forfeit if they want

though with forfeits, you run into an issue telling very highly trained athletes to just give up

12:29

But if not for that very big problem, plus the message it sends to fan, forfeits are kinda interesting

Like if you're down 12-0 in the fifth, it probably makes sense from a game theory standpoint, to forfeit. But to have forfeits be in baseball culture, you have to go back to 1885 and make it a normal part of the game

12:30

Like resignations in chess

But I'd be pissed about that as a player

12:31

hell, as a little leaguer, i'd complain loudly about the mercy rule, even on the losing side of it

lain

12:32

Hi Dan, is Jose Urquidy capable of sustaining what he delivered yesterday in any material way? Or a one-off?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

HOnestly, I'm not sure. He was once capable of that, but he's been injured for so long that it's really hard to gauge just how much is still there

eandy

12:33

Nick Pivetta has weird contract clauses. If he becomes a free agent this offseason, what would ZiPS give him?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

gimme amin

I'l come back to this one

oaktownblues

12:34

Do you think the Red Sox would've preferred Langeliers to Rutschman if he ahd been healthy?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Probably

InsertWittyNameHere

12:34

A Micky Morandini reference!?!?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

in THIS economy?

krob4385

12:34

Amazing how a week plus can change the vibes in Queens. Do you sense the Mets can recover next year and make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I think they'll be fine, and Mets reddit will immediately attribute it to ignoring analytics, even if there's zero evidence that actually happened

12:36

ZiPS would only offer Pivetta 2/32

but it doesn't fully know the extent of what's going on his arm

12:37

and really, only the padres and his doctor probably know for sure

We'll see if the Padres give him that conditional option

1/14?

1/15?

Phillip Denny

12:37

Is there any hope for Tovar? Or is dude just cooked and/or could never actually hit?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Now him, I'm more worried about than Henderson, as being one of those peak at 21 dudes

InsertWittyNameHere

12:38

Give me Ham on 5 and hold the Mayo. Is he the next Jordan Walker post-hype star-ish player?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Han on 5? I'm probably missing something obvious here

does Andrew Vaughn have that nickname? he's kinda post-hype star-ish and had a hamate injury

bubbles

12:40

Yhoiker Fajardo seems like a guy a model would think very highly of? Is my assumption correct for ZIPs? Very young for his level while posting great K%, BB%, ans SwStr% numbers and the First Strike % is trending upwards.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think he'll do decently

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