JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/23

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Dertom

12:54

I loved the AL East ZiPS preview for 2024 in the Yankees article. Can you find a way to do the same for other divisions in upcoming articles please?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I wasn't planning on something quite so formal.

I'll probably do a start-of-free agency run as I do most years

Dan

12:54

If you could perfectly predict the future you could make millions until the casinos banned you (or worse) if you could convince a team you had this power without outing yourself to the other teams you could make millions slower but could keep making millions for the rest of your life

Dan Szymborski

12:55

It would make life kind of boring. I'd be wealthy, but I'd basically be ruining baseball for myself

Why watch if you know what's going to happen?

Yeah, we can predict the Royals suck. But HOW they suck is worth watching it unfold

C-Low

12:55

Does Jackson Holliday make a 2023 appearance?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

No

Dan

12:56

At the beginning of the year I asked who would miss the playoff by less wins than the value of a solid free agent DH and good non closer reliever) you or your colleague (can't recall) predicted three teams. Is that still a likely number?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Must have been a colleague as I would have demanded you say fewer!

Eli

12:56

Regarding "Rebuilding the Bombers" - Cashman has got to be fired, right? Has any GM fallen more in estimation over the past few years? The hiring Sean Casey move is such overweening hubris and idiocy that that alone should result in sacking the whole front office!

Dan Szymborski

12:56

The thing is, I think most jobs like this, after a long time with the same person, a new perspective can be refereshing

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:57

Dan, can you please write an article about what factors influence Pythagorean over/underperformance (and the factors we can prove do not)? I'm getting tired of arguing about it. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Here, I'll list the meaningful ones:

/end

Top closer was closest to mattering and it had an r^2 in the 0.02 range

LFC Mike

12:58

Dan.. What food or drink will you use to drown your Ohtani sorrows? Hefty pot of chili… masterful sandwich ? Sweets? Everyone has coping mechanisms.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Actually, based on lunch, a whole bunch of blueberry mini-muffins

O's going all the way!

12:58

Were you leaning Henderson or Jung before the injury? Has to be Henderson now regardless, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Henderson.

Though I have no vote in AL ROY

12:59

I'm in Cincy BBWAA chapter, so I'd vote on NL awards

now, they can draft someone from another chapter if they're short

but I would decline that because there are many people who don't get to vote because they're in large chapters and I've gotten to vote in 6 of 8 seasons

Jay has *never* gotten to vote in a year-end award, which is completely bullshit

Mark

1:00

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your chats. Nowhere else to we get baseball, chili, Olivier Messiaen, and Henry George in the same place! Your chili recipe is delicious, I would add.

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Ah, I'm glad you enjoyed real chili!

And it's super simple

While I would consider myself a foodie, I like a lot of simple things being prepared simply

1:01

A hunk of salami and a hunk of nice hard cheese are a perfectly wonderful meal

Kevin

1:01

You don't have to ruin baseball! Ruin another sport with your predictive powers

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Ideally, that would be the way to go

Like Future Dan can give the soccer/association football record book

1:02

My enjoyment of sports correlates with enjoying playing them as a kid

I loved playing baseball

I absolutely hated playing soccer. Such an awful ratio of running around to doing stuff

1:03

On that note, I have some projection stuff to take care of, so gonna have to keep this at an hour today

Thanks for coming everyone!

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