JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/23

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:39

(And again, these go a little lower when you account for fewer games)

12:40

Even ARcia's isnt' crazy

Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR 95% 23 20 .290 .352 .483 119 2.9 90% 22 19 .281 .340 .463 112 2.6 80% 20 17 .269 .327 .438 103 2.1

Guest

12:40

Is there any open source baseball stats prediction software (Python or R) you'd recommend?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It's handy to know both if you're breaking into the game

Mike

12:40

Just wanted to say thanks for all the entertainment over the years.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I try to be at least mildly amusing

Danny

12:40

I understand the philosophy behind using a fip based value metric as attempting to measure the contribution from pitcher skill. Given that, why aren't all so fwar calculations based on the best descriptive metrics of skill (something like xwoba for batters, siera, xfip, or xera for pitchers)?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Because FIP is designed for a specific purpose and it's good for definitions to not changee

I think it's generally better to develop better stats rather than change existing stats

12:42

WAR is different because WAR is really just a large framework, not a stat itself in the same way

leprekhan

12:42

I respect the answer, but I have no faith Reinsdorf's decision-making including who he would sell the team to IF that were to come to pass.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Here's the thing. Put all the billionaire's names in a hat. I bet that the majority of your draws would be a better owner than Reinsdorf

Sadness

12:42

I know it's not nearly as fun but isn't Shohei the right fielder enough value to cover his 2.3 pitching WAR? Seems like the defense/position value covers the pitching loss no?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

That's a bit of a stretch

There isn't a 23 run positional adjustment from DH to corner outfielder

and we don't know how good he'll actually be in right

Guest

12:43

“Never fall in love with a guy based on one year HR outliers”. My wife fell for that trick and now she’s stuck with me! Bwaabwaaaaa

maximus

12:44

how many 17 year olds have played at AA?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Not many!

At least in recnet times

hang on a sec

12:47

17 years old with at least 100 PA at AA include

Wil Cordero 1989

12:48

Robert Holbert 1964

Danny Murphy 1960

12:49

that's all I have in my db

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

12:49

If we were to assume that Ohtani is done pitching for the foreseeable future or even beyond, do you see him transitioning as an OF or remaining as a DH?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I can see him in the outfield once his arm is well enough for that

Mike

12:50

Reinsdorf's son works at the Bulls and doesn't care about the Sox. Likely the team is up for sale in the next decade when he passes.

LFC Mike

12:50

The Burger King mascot would frighten the children. It scares me.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I bet I can make scarier Burger King mascots in Midjourney!

Mike M

12:51

Now that we're a good way through the season, have you had a chance to reflect or analyze how well your ZiPS has down in light of the rules changes? Knowing what you know now about the way the game has been played, would you have tweaked ZiPS any differently in the pre-season if you got to redo it?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

higher SB for sure. Not a ton has really changed that much otherwise

But I haven't given much thought to how Future Dan in a time machine should affect a model

12:52

because Future Dan going back to troll Past Dan sounds like something I would do

12:53