JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:23

ZiPS has been all for him the whole time!

Dane Dunning

12:23

All of his minor league stats look awesome is this guy the real deal for dynasty.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I'm very optimistic

RMR

12:24

Can Story hold these contact gains? I knew he was a good player, but I didn't see him cutting the Ks like this.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Even his contact gains aren't *that* extreme - he's also been more selective.

Stevil

12:24

Would Gabriel Moreno be a fair return for Taijuan Walker? Toronto has catching depth; Seattle lacks catching depth.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think it is

Sonny

12:25

is Javy Baez LouBob's ceiling? Is there any other precedent for that approach/profile being successful? Obviously a multiple all-star and fringe MVP candidate is an amazing outcome but without changing the approach the floor remains...bad Byron Buxton?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't think that's a bad ceiling at all

And I'm higher on his floor than you.

12:27

I think his upside could be GG CF Vlad

Nolan

12:28

The Reds have the worst BABIP for any team for any year in which the statistic is available, and it’s not even close (.224 for the 2020 Reds, .241 for the 1968 Yankees). A fluke? The result of the shift? Is there hope for the Reds offense?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

hold up, I can pull up the zBABIP for the Reds as a team.

12:29

Golly, ZiPS thinks the Reds should be at .286

So there's definitely room

12:29

Dan, have you ever employed a poolboy?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I don't own a pool.

Another Dan Szymborski

12:29

Greetings, from a parallel universe!

Dan Szymborski

12:29

ILL KILL YOU

LFC Mike

12:29

Hi Dan. How can the Reds best handle the demise of Joey Votto? Numbers this year are very poor..but his babip this year is under .200 that counts for something right?... but the decline seems to be accelerating and he is owed quite a bit of money in the near future.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

THey do have enough outfielders to shift one to 1B long term.

12:30

ZiPS thinks Votto should have a .292 BABIP BTW

Jonathan

12:30

At this point, Pete Alonso looks completely lost at the plate. Was 2019 a mirage?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm not worried yet

Appa Yip Yip

12:30

Broadcasters say a lot of things that make me go all old man yelich at clouds like "home runs are rally killers" and "the stolen base is a lost art" but nothing drives me crazier than when they're talking about a player and go, "and you know what? He's a ball player." But you know what? Cavan Biggio is a ball player.

ZiPS' conscience

12:30

Dear Dan, When will you learn to trust me? My long-term projections told you Soto would be better than Trout in a couple of years, yet you dared to question me. Thank you, your acquaintance, ZiPS The Lovable Projection System

Dan Szymborski

12:31

ILL KILL YOU

Chris

12:31

Kyle Lewis Dan, Kyle lewis

Jason

12:33

Two Matt Olson questions: 1) He has a .153 BABIP. What's his zBABIP and how much regression should be expected vs the heavy shifting. 2) Does ZIPS Defense take into account Scoops? If not, what's your best estimate as to how much WAR value being really good at scooping provides?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Number one is answered an article that's in the queue. Number two, DRS is part of the ZiPS estimate, so it's in there since BIS does (*unless I'm mistaken, which has happened)

Bob

12:33

I love inside jokes. I’d love to be part of one someday.

Dan

12:34

I know it's late but I kept missing chats. Who are the most irreplaceable players on the teams like the dodgers and Yankees who didn't have anyone who made a top 25 play chances swing?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Hang on

12:36

Buehler for Dodgers, Cole for Yankees, Castillo for Reds, Chapman for A's, Acuña Braves, Robert White Sox, K-Mart DBax, Bichette Jays

Sonny

12:37

Pitchers were ahead of hitters, but at higher injury risk. Many bad teams have been bad, few "good" teams have been bad. Am I wrong to think 2020 is more representative of what a full, non COVID season would have looked like?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'm not sure I undestand the question. 2020 is hard to take as representative over other seasons because, well, 60 games combined with the wierdness

Sonny

12:37

Holy Cats! gold glove CF Vlad sounds like a guy you'd create in a video game

Dan Szymborski

12:37

MAKE YOUR TIME

FBI

12:38

ZiPS has become sentient. I repeat, ZiPS has become sentient. We need to evacuate.

v2micca

12:38

My fantasy team is last in every offense category but first in every pitching category. At this point, am I obligated to rename my team to The DeGroms?

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