JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:38

or The Mets

Nathan

12:38

Heard a rumor the dodgers and rangers were talking about Lance Lynn. What do you think it'd take the dodgers to get him?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I don't actually have a great feeling on how the Rangers are valuing him as I do in a lot of situations. Considering the team's record and the decreased importance of winning the division, I don't think the Dodgers would be willing to go hog wild

Chris

12:39

I know you generally try to avoid politics in these chats but the boycotts don't really how allow that, thoughts on the boycott? And what you think the medias role should be when politics and sports intersect

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Ugghg, I hate answering politics stuff.

12:40

Especially since answering politics stuff is guaranteed to make everyone hate me.

I think a brief protest is fine, but it's hard to argue efficacy if it becomes a long-term thing, since the boycott isn't really targeted at people who could change the behavior you want.

12:41

And there's a risk in a long-term boycott; NBA players have great influence because they are NBA players. You risk diluting your social capital.

12:42

I think they make sense as a short-term making the point thing.

(That's the only politics Q I'm going to answer, since a variation of this has been asked several times)

Dan's Mom

12:42

Danny! What's for lunch today?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

You can get your own food mom.

12:43

I ate my leftover pizza from Wheat Penny: red chorizo, calabrian peppers, and lamb

GoPadres

12:43

How much statcast data will it take for ZiPS to ever like Eric Hosmer, or has the Hosmer boat set sail for ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

ZiPS has no feelings! He keeps up this power as his BABIP improves and it could change his outlook considerably

Guest

12:44

Could you explain to Dusty Baker that no matter how fast Myles Straw is, leading off a hitter with a .271 OBP is a bad idea

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Has anyone ever explained that to Dusty Baker?

12:45

It's one of the things you have to accept as a tradeoff for having Baker as manager

12:46

Baker's the cleanup crew. Someone's barfed on all the walls of the museum and you need a specialist who can clean that up without destroying the precious art already there.

But you don't add Baker's paintings to any of the exhibits.

Baker's just there to clean up the crap and keep the team together after the controversy

He's not there because he's a good tactician or strategist or, let's be honest, really grasps modern baseball.

Trevor

12:47

Most projection systems use a 60/30/10% split in valuing the last 3 years for a player. Will this change next year since the 2020 season is so short (and might not deserve a 60% weight)?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

ZiPS will certainly weight 2020 less (I use variable weightings for different things) and other projection systems will amost certainly do the same

Politics Dan Szymborski

12:47

Ask me political questions! The more the better!

Dan Szymborski

12:47

ILL KILL YOU TOO!

Numpty

12:47

Chili on hot dogs, Dan? We need to know.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Actual chili, yhes

yes

12:48

If I see beans on my hot dog, I'm going to get you.

and you can live in my backyard oubliette under the shed like the ZiPS creator

And don't think just because I'd be doubling the inmates, I'm doubling the gruel and water too.

12:49

Guest

12:49

What does ZIPS project for peak Messi in the MLS? The equivalent of Trout playing AA?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Don't even ask me to project association football

Numpty

12:49

But, chili CHEESE dogs, Dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

As long as it's recognized that it's cheese *and* chili and that the cheese on the dog is not part of the chili on the dog

Character Piece

12:50

Dan you're a comedy fan right? Are any of Mark Normand, Andrew Schulz, Andrew Santino, Joe List, or Chris Distefano on your radar?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Normand I know as I heard some 2020 stuff. I'm usually a few years behind on comedy stuff though

Guest

12:53

Gabriel Moreno seems steep for a guy with a FIP and xFIP of close to 5 and with only 1 month of control

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