JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: Except maybe SzymChat.

war2d2

12:02

Dan! Good news! I just realized you can sing your name to the tune of “Black Betty” by Ram Jam. Do with this information what you will.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I'm not sure if the lyric "Szymborski had a child bam ba lam" really works

Chandler White

12:04

How does Zips react to a player repeating a minor league level and performing much better? The general notion is that it's expected from potential major leaguers but was unsure if Zips is only factoring in age and other league factors or if there was something built into the algo to reference a repeat in level.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

There's a bit of a penalty for repeating after a previous stint of at least 1/2 a season

war2d2

12:05

I felt the Cubs did an okay job at the deadline, addressing the needs they had with decent options (ZiPS seems to agree, judging by your piece on the deadline). Obviously I’m disappointed they didn’t land Skubal, as I think anyone would be. You had said previously that, from a playoff odds perspective, Skubal made the most impact on the Cubs’ chances out of anyone. Would he have made more of an impact alone than the package of Gausman et al did in aggregate?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

It was actually pretty close. The Cubs needed some bulk too

12:06

And the penalty ramps up slowly based on more than a half season

Marc Kartman

12:06

you'll probably get a bunch of these, but the headline reads July 31 so you should update it.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

dang it

OK, that SHOULD be fixed, but it'll take a bit to propogate on the page

Patrick Burke

12:07

Assuming not, but does Lombard over Volpe/Caballero boost the Yankees' ZiPS win total projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

about the same. obviously lombard has a ton of upside, but in 2026 he's not really a HUGE upgrade and

fincampbell05

12:09

ZiPS slash line and WAR projection for Adley in 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR 2027 .255 .336 .415 482 60 123 28 2 15 69 60 82 0 107 3.7

Marc Kartman

12:09

Real question -- the Brewers are taking a lot of fire for the Dustin May/JoJo Romero deal, but the underlying data suggests that, aside from Skuball, May was the best starter available. What's your take?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I don't think the deal is bad, though I would prefer Gausman

toodamntall

12:12

Is your AC set at a reasonable temperature, or do you set it really low as a middle finger to hot summer weather? (Not sure what the weather is where you are, it's hot here.)

Dan Szymborski

12:12

12:13

The bill I just paid was $478 >:-(

I keep the thermostat at 72 in the summer and 68 in the winter. The house is relatively large and the ductwork is fairly old and not particularly efficient

12:14

I could do a winter without a furnace better than a summer without an a/c. Even before I was a fat dude I was a summer sweat machine. Meanwhile, I shoveled my sidewalk for 10 minutes in a t-shirt and shorts when it was -3 degrees in January

muenstertruck

12:14

In anticipation of a lockout, is anyone at Fangraphs looking to do an article on why the all-Vulcan team in Star Trek Deep Space 9 would have absolutely destroyed the DS9 station team? They even mention in the episode that Vulcans are 3 times stronger on average and have faster reflexes! Worf ain't hitting a 150mph slider, that's for damn sure.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Don't tell Davy this one, I want to add it to my OH FUCK ITS BEEN FOUR MONTHS OF A LOST SEASON file

12:15

Yeah, there's no way the DS9 crew could have won that one

They wouldni't have even gotten a ball in play

I actually learned the term "fancy Dan" from that episode back in the day

Anon

12:16

What are Yordan's Triple Crown chances at this point? He's essentially a lock for BA (.329 vs .300 in 2nd, though Pena at .311 could make it interesting if he squeezes in enough PA to qualify after missing a bunch of time). He obviously needs to fend off Caminero (who hit another massive bomb yesterday) and Rice for HR (though there really isn't anybody close behind those 3). He has a 10 RBI lead over Dingler (a catcher who is likely to wear down) and 12 over Rice (who may be battling for playing time here shortly). There are a few guys at 71 (Alonso, Aranda, Caminero), but that's even further back. I have to think his Triple Crown chances are pretty high at this point.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I might rerun them, but I've already gotten one Triple Crown article out of it, so it would be greedy to try and squeeze out a second one

ask me after the weekend?

They have to be really good now.

12:18

He's got a big RBI lead and you still have to like where he is in the HR race

Injury might be the biggest risk

Alexander Griffith

12:18

Suggested article about his 4-hit debut: For Guardians, the Time is Genao

Phil

12:19

Do you have thoughts on Rafaela's potential to be an above-average hitter going forward, as he has been this year? It looks like ZiPS is the high number among the projection systems right now. Obviously this would push his overall value to some pretty lofty levels, given the defense.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR 2027 .268 .312 .430 512 74 137 30 4 15 71 26 112 19 103 3.7 2028 .269 .316 .434 521 77 140 30 4 16 73 28 111 18 105 4.0 2029 .265 .313 .423 513 75 136 30 3 15 72 29 108 16 102 3.6 2030 .268 .317 .428 500 74 134 29 3 15 70 29 104 15 104 3.7 2031 .268 .318 .426 481 71 129 28 3 14 66 28 100 13 104 3.5

Barbaro Garbey

12:19

Dan - Looking at the Tigers run differential and past two month's performance, is it fair to say there's still a chance they can win *this* version of the AL? Even minus Skubal and Mize, their rotation seems decent at least, and the infusion of young talent (and return of old talent from injury such as el Mago and Gleyber) has leveled up the offense. Am I high on hopium or is there a chance?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Yes

12:20

Obviously, it's quite a bit less likely

but people always overrate how much a baseball player means to a team

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