JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:20

They'll treat aces like they're a QB or a starter on an NBA team. They're not

BirdsEyeViewBal

12:20

As an Orioles fan, is this just par for the course and is there any chance one day they go all in to win a championship?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Someday maybe? I don't think Elias is really a gambler though

12:21

and really, MLB's playoff structure discourages pushing your chips

luckycrumb

12:21

Hello Dan

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Phil

12:21

Kristian Campbell had a very good month. Does this matter? Does it matter in regards to the current baseball season?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I mean, it always matters

Think of projects as a moving target rather than a point

projections

mmddyyyy

12:22

If a player represents themselves, does that give them some leeway to communicate with other front offices?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Not really. Agents dont' get palyers around tampering as far as I'm aware

Phil

12:24

What would you do with Brayan Bello? His usage does not match his (recent) effectiveness at present--but I understand why.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Honestly, he's done pretty well as a bulk reliever dude lately. I might not mess with success in 2026 at least

Sonny L

12:25

the Red Sox going are going to post a win total pretty dang close to preseason projections the most chaotic way possible and I think it’s my favorite team season in a long time. How many managers get fired in a year their team meets/beats projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

That might be interesting

I might write that down to look at in an article later!

InsertWittyNameHere

12:26

Which city’s symphony orchestra do you like the best and which do you think IS the best?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I have favorite CONDUCTORS but I'm not sure I have favorite orchestras

12:27

Probably New York since I love so many of those old 50s Bernstein recordings

Reiner/Solti Chicago might be a more oiled machine though?

12:28

And I really like a lot of those terrible sounding recordings of the Moscow Philharmonic in the 60s/70s when they had a really raw/unrefined sound

12:29

But a lot of what we hear from orchestras is the conductor

12:30

Like I don't listen to a lot of Boston Symphony recordings from the modern era, but that's because I find Ozawa rather a snoozer. But I like the Munch recordings

tunglashr

12:30

How much do you think Arjun Nimmala will have his development negatively impacted by being on the Angels instead of the Blue Jays?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm nto sure THAT negatively

I think the problems with the Angels are more macro than micro, if that makes sense

mike sixel

12:30

It's clear the owner in Minnesota wanted the PR of buying..... But, well, it was a mistake from a baseball perspective.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

"How do we look like we're buying without having to actually spend money?"

luckycrumb

12:30

Question inspired by the Nimmala-Soriano trade: I have a hunch that while batting average may not be a great way to measure run production, it seems to act as a pretty good filter for which players have success in the majors. I know ZiPS uses zBABIP somewhere in the projections, but what would you say about the utility of a prospects batting average in the minors versus something like contact rate? I feel like batting average carries some additional information about swing path and hit tool in-game that makes me bearish about Nimmala who has hit .237 over about 1200 professional PAs

Dan Szymborski

12:31

It...depends

For instance, contact rate does *not* seem to be as big a deal for minor league players playing VERY well

because it's frequently a relic of the incentives

12:32

We had this discussion a lot here back in 2014

with Kris Bryant

Dude had a 1.100 OPS. You're kind of *incentivized* to be aggressive and go after marginal shit when you're getting results like that when you make contact

12:33

but I've found that when *lesser* minor leaguers have contact issues, it's a far BIGGER deal compared to the majors

toodamntall

12:33

What baseball accomplishments would you double dog dare Ohtani to go for next season?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Play shortstop

six inning left-handed shutout

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