JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 8/6/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:33

Winning an impromptu pole vault competition instituted for next All-Star game by a madman getting control

David Wiers

12:34

Will Snell tally more starts and IP in the postseason than in the regular?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

No. Last I checked, he's almost back, no?

mmddyyyy

12:34

What is the minimum age at which ZiPS could project a player?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

depends on the experience

12:35

ZiPS can project a player if there's the data for it, which means no high school

Though I don't usually make an "official" projection until a player has debuted in high-A or a pitcher in AA

toodamntall

12:35

Which team defies the odds and makes a run to get into the playoffs? I'll take Pittsburgh

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I'm going to troll and go with Orioles

goinggoinggone

12:35

What am I missing with FG's projection of the Phillies? They've run a negative run differential all season. They're old, and we're seeing the effects. Turner is pretty clearly declining. Schwarber is coming down to his xwOBA after homering in every game the first half. Harper back to the OF where surely he won't remain healthy. Pen is ok outside Duran but hardly great.

Obviously they have the three headed monster at SP. Outside that, their SP is rough.

They seem like a .500 or below team, yet FG is projecting them to be a good bit better ROS.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I think generally the projections believe the lineup has underscored their talent

Barbaro Garbey

12:36

Dan - Looking at the Tigers' run differential and past two month's performance, is it fair to say there's still a chance they can win *this* version of the AL? Even minus Skubal and Mize, their rotation seems decent at least, and the infusion of young talent (and return of old talent from injury such as el Mago and Gleyber) has leveled up the offense. For the Tigers at deadline time, selling = buying; I am having visions of River Ryan outdueling Tarik Skubal to win a thrilling Game 7. Am I high on hopium or is there a chance?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

yes

aspiers

12:36

how, if at all, have you incorporated stat cast/savant innovations into zips? for example bat speed

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Been doing that for a while!

Bat speed is not in the live version yet and probably won't be for at least a year

I'm still doing a lot of research on the interactions with other statcast things

becuase a lot of bat speed things are being captured a bit

David Wiers

12:36

Could Chandler *be* any more frustrating? This season, he's changed his pitch mix (fewer fastballs, added a sinker, more sliders, and fewer change-ups), but he still can't get his walk rate under control, and now even the K% is falling. What does his 2027 ZiPS look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

hold on david it's loading

Philip Christy

12:38

If your cats had alter egos that were current major league players, who would they be?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I think Constantine would be David Ortiz

big dude, but probably would play defense poorly

not sure about the others really lol

still too early for the kittens

12:39

I think Cassiopeia would be Marge Schott

Justinian is very athletic, but I think he'd be a toolsy underperformer

Bob Loblaw

12:40

Who are your MVPs right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

PCA and Alvarez I think

I'm one of the two Cincy voters for the new reliever award this year so that's the one I can't talk about my vote (for future reference)

I think Matt Snyder was assigned the other spot

mmddyyyy

12:40

Does ZiPS run on your hardware?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I certainly hope so!

ImKeithHernandez

12:41

Help me understand the difference: Sal Stewart has a .347 wOBA and only 115 wRC+. Pete Alonso has a .348 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. Is the wRC+ gap all park factors?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

That's usually the case

I'd have to dig into their specific data

toodamntall

12:41

How responsive is Zips? As an example, Noah Cameron just reeled off three gems; maybe a hot streak, maybe a skill change with added velo. If he is better moving forward, how long would zips take to believe it?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

ZiPS is pretty responsive, especially with statcast type data, though you need the full-fat one for that

Bob Loblaw

12:42

Favorite deadline move?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Amusing-favorite is the A's doing absolutely NOTHING. It's like someone sent a memo that they'd get in some of their ideas for the August 31st trade deadline on Monday morning

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