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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/24

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Dan Szymborski

1:02

braves

(sorry, I still associate AA with the Jays for the first few seconds I think about him)

1:03

I would go seriously after Adames if I'm the Braves

Judge's Defense

1:04

Judge is getting killed on the defensive metrics right now. If I'm reading the player pages right he's being credited for -15 UZR runs in 57 innings in right field. This is enough to give Witt the overall WAR lead. What's causing this? The metrics all feel he's much better in center than right.

Dan Szymborski

1:04

You're not reading the right column

1:05

He has -0.5 UZR at RF in 57 innings. He has -15.3 UZR *per 150 games* in RF this year, which is purely a pace measurement

And in any case, WAR hasn't used UZR in a few years

1:06

so even if he were at -15 runs in 57 innings in RF in UZR, it would have no effect on his WAR

And there's no conclusion about the RF/CF split to draw since 57 innings is just about worthless to draw a conclusion from

1:07

We don't have a full career of statcast fielding, but based on UZR, the eight run difference between his UZR/150 in rightfield (9.1) and his UZR/150 in center (1.2) is not noteworthy. Typical is about 10 runs.

Adam

1:08

Who's the best bet for a team to a) miss this year's playoffs, and b) make it next year? What about the reverse?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

Cubs probably for the first one?

1:09

The biggest differential for the second *might* be the Yankees right now, simply because Juan Soto is unsigned

Dreamin

1:10

How much better does Ketel Marte have to be than Ohtani over the rest of the season to win the MVP?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

Probably a good bit

I think a lot of people are unaware just how ridiculous Ketel's been since the start of June

Guest

1:11

Why are you hanging out in the Rockies subreddit?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

I make lots of poor decisions

On that note, it's time for me to head out for another week.

1:12

Thanks as always for coming out, and I hope to see you next time!

Talfred

1:12

Benintendi?

Dan Szymborski

1:12

OH CRAP HANGON

1:13

Year BA OBP SLG WAR 2025 .260 .327 .383 0.8 2026 .257 .325 .376 0.6 2027 .258 .326 .377 0.6 2028 .252 .318 .363 0.2 2029 .249 .319 .361 0.0 2030 .226 .291 .301 -0.2

Smiling Politely

1:13

Excited to make the live chat!

Dan, I'm the only one left on Gavin Lux Hill, but I know you were there with me. Does he have a future as a positive platoon bat, at least? He's been hitting quite well since the ASG, but of course, that doesn't negate *history*

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I think at the very least he's a good complementary talent

1:14

ok, NOW I'm going

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