JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/23

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Guest

12:14

Is it true that David Stearns is secretly the son of former Mets catcher John Stearns, and that he's out to get Dave Parker and everyone associated with the Pittsburgh Pirates?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I wonder what ChatGPT says about it

12:16

In baseball's hallowed halls, a secret winds,
A complex tale, where destiny entwines,
David Stearns, the Mets' VP, the name proclaimed,
A son's connection, hidden, unashamed.
From John Stearns, a legend of the past,
A legacy preserved, shadows cast,
In whispers 'mongst the diamond's sacred ground,
A vendetta veiled, a vendetta bound.
A chessboard set, a strategy concealed,
In boardrooms shrewd, his power is revealed,
To undermine the Pirates' storied grace,
To plot their fall with skill and subtle trace.
In family ties and rivalries that churn,
A tale of secrets, where the pages turn,
For David, son of John, a legacy to bear,
In baseball's realm, a secret to declare.
Yet, can he break the bonds of history's might,
And in the Pirates' heart, plant seeds of blight?
In baseball's complex dance of fate and chance,
The son's ambition seeks its grand advance.
In each pitch and swing, in every inning's play,
The story of their clash unfolds today,
With wisdom passed from father's hand to son,
The battle's fought, b

12:17

The battle's fought, but who shall be undone?
This intricate tale, both secret and profound,
In baseball's tapestry, forever bound,
David Stearns, with motives held in store,
Secretly yearns to even the score.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:17

Why do we have KBO stats on the site, but not NPB?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I'm...not sure. I've actually been meaning to ask that.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:17

Will minor leaguers be negotiating at the same time as the MLBPA?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Hmm...you've got a solid inventory of Questions Dan Doesn't Know the Answer to!

Joe Shlabotnik

12:18

What do you make of Cole Ragans's meltdown at the end of last start--specifically, the three WP in a row, with him falling down on the first and third? Mechanical issue? Yips? Mound maintenance issue? Injury or precursor that he and the team have somehow not sussed out? Just curious what your gut says. (I'm not a betting guy at all, so I was surprised to see, on a twitter thread about it, how many peoples' instinctive reply--whether cynical, joking, or serious--was that he was engaging in Black Sox-esque gambling foul play.)

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I generally think a combination of the first two

I haven't seen anything about the mound, but then again I don't watch many Royals games at this point in the season

even if they were playing the Jays

12:19

I think it's easy to go on full tilt, even for a professional

Jon

12:19

Since May 1 Triston Casas has a 146 wRC+, good for 10th in baseball. He has put up pretty huge BB/ISO numbers in his career so far. How confident is ZiPS that he can maintain this sort of production going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Last month when I ran the numbers, Casas 2024 wRC+ was up to 126, about a 10 point jump, so he's definitely moving up in ZiPS

12:21

ZiPS had Olson at 421 at the start of the season, so 500 certainly isn't crazy with another big homer season written in pen

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

12:21

What would Trout's ROC projections look like if he gets traded and stays healthy forever because his past/current injuries are entirely due to a curse on Moreno/the Angels?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I don't have a simple way to do "forever healthy" things

He was already showing some signs of decline. Even if perfectly healthy, he's now on the wrong side of 30

12:22

and time always wins

bringbackpologrounds

12:22

Matt Olson for 500 HR? He needs 8 35 HR seasons to get there and he's only 29.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Oops, that was the Olson question

Suddenly talking about Olson wasn't just me being random

peanut-gallery

1

Kevin W

12:24

The Yankees moved catcher Edinson Duran from rookie league, where he had 121 plate appearances, to Triple-A yesterday. Why? Protect him from the minor league draft?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I actually missed that one. I'm not really sure. You sometimes see guys promoted temporarily just to be a spare body, but where their SWB injuries I missed?

12:26

It feels like some roster shifting move, maybe the FCL roster is too full for everyone they want there?

But I don't have the specific info on that

Inaccessible Rail

12:26

The Mets have a minor league pitcher named Peyton Battenfield. Isn't that the best baseball game you've ever heard? Bat and Field? Too bad he's not a position player.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Loveisa!

Inaccessible Rail

12:27

Can we change Wins Above Average to Wins Above the Mean so that we can change the acronym from the terrible WAA to the more pronounceable WAM?

Who's Fabio?

12:27

Hey Dan - do you have any before and after Davis Schneider projections? As in, before he started putting up 0.1 WAR per MLB game.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

He's up to about a three-win 2023 last I checked

though ZiPS already liked him

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

12:27

Chances Matt Olson finishes with 500+ HRs? What active player has the best (still miniscule chances) of catching Aaron, and of catching Bonds?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Doing a milestone thing monday!

party

2

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

12:29

Is there a correlation between player size and strikeout rate that goes beyond "big player swing hard/tiny player slap hit"? I always wonder about player size effects on umpire strike zone, and how well they're able to adjust the zone from batter to batter, especially in extreme cases

Dan Szymborski

12:29

https://tht.fangraphs.com/does-size-matter-part-4/

James

12:29

If Chas and Yainer are for real, do the 2024 Astros challenge the Braves for best offense?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

They certainly could. The high end of their offense is very good already

Kinda curious what Dusty does, if he actually retires

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