JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:31

Chas could be hot on the heels of Bonds' HR season record and I still think Baker would frequently sit him for no reason!

David

12:31

Ohtani hasn't played in 10 days and could potentially just be shutdown for the year. Is there a decent chance Corey Seager or Julio could make a run for MVP?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

My guts says no

RAGBRAI

12:31

What are the odds that three NLC teams make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I don't have them in front of me, but REALLY small. You basically need all three NLC possibilities to beat the PHillies

12:32

Now, Milwaukee has a godo shot

OK, maybe REALLY small is a strethc

whey can't is epll

spell

12:33

I swear I'm not having a stroke.

12:34

14% in ZiPS, that's higher than I'd thought

But I guess they don't all have to beat the Phillies

Oddball Herrera

12:34

A coder joke for you that I can't help but make (too bad he's hurt, he was fun while it lasted):

{
"Last Name": "Dominguez"
}

Guest

12:35

do you think Tanner Bibee Could Have A real shot at AL Rookie of the year?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I certainly don't think he's the favorite, but it's not CRAZY

Jung's been injured, Yoshida's dropped off

12:36

But defeating Gunnar's going to be hard

But I'd be shocked if he DIDNT get a significant number of votes

12:37

Casas going to get some support too

RAGBRAI

12:37

What is a more meaningless stat for pitchers, wins or holds?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

God, that's a cruel game. Holds probably.

RAGBRAI

12:37

Is Elly De La Cruz closer to what we are are seeing now or what we saw with his initial call up. ‘Somewhere in between’ should not be an acceptable answer, but as moderator it’s your call.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

That's so cruel!

I'm the boss here. Somewhere in the middle is about right

RAGBRAI

12:38

Stolen bases are up but is the percentage of SBs versus being caught up too? If so by much? Will the increase continue next year or will it level off?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

SB success is up like five percentage points.

12:39

That's likely above the realistic break-even point, so I expect SBs to still go up a bit

Greg

12:39

In all of the Davis Schneider talk I'm a bit disappointed that we have heard so little off the name "Shane Spencer". It makes me think that the whole world is just younger than me. Just look at them, on my lawn in their flat brim caps and all of their TikToks

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Sorry, was pulling up something

The thing is, ZiPS liked Schneider coming into the season, he's not really out of nowhere (though his streak kinda is)

12:43

I didn't do a Spencer projection and I can't do that quickly, but here are the minor league translations I get for him, and they were really unimpressive.

Given the lack of defensive value, I can't imagine a projection for him was as good as Schneider's

12:44

Schneider was at 1.6 WAR in like 400 PA before the season

Kork

12:44

Mariners? Mariners.

Inaccessible Rail

12:44

In the wake of the Mets/Padres/Yankees disasters, If the Rangers don't make the playoffs, will we ever see a big free agent signing again?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Of course we will!

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

12:45

Is there a hypothetical point at which the type of model input available to you, say on player biometrics and medicals, would cause you to lose interest in continuing to develop ZiPs to include to the most cutting-edge parameters? I realize you'll likely never get all the stuff teams have started to collect, but if suddenly you had all kinds of info on player sleep patterns and microtears in ligaments and all that increasingly weird, possibly intrusive data, would you want to use it or is that getting so far beyond actual baseball that you'd be a little disheartened and disinterested?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I'm for anything that can make the projections better!

and while I don't have in depth as any one team, anything that is available *widely* from team to team, I have ways of obtaining

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