JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:45

Remember at this point, we've gotten all the low-hanging fruit

each gain will be smaller than the ones prior

Todd Bonzalez

12:46

Are you as convinced as others are that it is specifically the new incentives that has made GMs across baseball more cavalier about prospect promotions?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Guest

12:46

Which do you prefer, the Sandwich Islands or Chile?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Chile for sure

12:47

aren't the Sandwich Islands unpopulated? The internet must totally suck then!

12:48

I've never been to Chile, but it's somewhere I like to go

12:49

I like their cuisine, mountains, temperatures that don't have me stewing in my own juices

Stats

12:49

I took an Econometrics class and Game Theory class in college and largely had no idea what I was doing. What would be the best resources to learn more about the subject at a deepish level to start trying to conduct your own analysis? You seem like you have a pretty good idea of what you're doing.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

It really depends what you're struggling with most!

I'm not sure what the best references are at this point

Because I'd be a terrible teacher! lol

Texas Rangers

12:50

Why do the baseball gods hate us???

Dan Szymborski

12:51

For taking the hat off the logo

Brew Up

12:52

"Any halfway competent team is competitive in the NLC though" is an interesting dig at a division poised to send 3 teams to the playoffs. Is there a more dangerous team that no one is talking about in a series than Milwaukee with their horses?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

We have a playoff system that now sends halfway competent teams! lol

Actually, Brewers have the biggest positive bump in ZiPS roster quality from seasonal to postseason model

just ahead of Blue Jays

Yuniesky Betancourt

12:54

Which will we see first in MLB, from this point forward: a player who is 7'1" or a player who is 5'4"?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Gaedel!

I'm not sure I buy Altuve is 5'6

And there's a rumor that as as minor leaguer, David Eckstein worked in the Keebler treehouse

Guest

12:54

how often does zips spit out a projection that's so far from expected that it makes you double check nothing is wrong with the system?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Not FREQUENTLY simply because I pay attention to stuff

12:55

and a model isn't going to be absolutely off the ledge for a mean projection

sometimes there are surprises in the percentiles

or if I break something like the time I projected Jose Molina to have a 1.400 batting average

RandyJOHNSON

12:55

Dan is there hope for Trevor Story

Dan Szymborski

12:55

Of course!

Hopeless Cubs Fan

12:55

Hey Dan, what kind of contract do you expect Cody Bellinger to get this off-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I think he'll get nine figures and will be worth less.

There are really good reasons to be skeptical of his power

Mike S

12:56

Do you agree with the take that using a FIP based WAR is more useful as a predictive stat then a stat that tells you how the pitcher actually performed over the course of a season?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Here's the problem

There IS no "actual performance" tally for a pitcher or any defensive player

12:57

We simply ASSIGN runs allowed to pitchers either entirely or mostly, in somewhat arbitrary fashion

ERA/RA is trick accounting

Now, ERA is a useful stat

but just because there's an accounting trick doesn't mean that something is USEFUL

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