JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/22

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Dick Mountain

12:19

Do you believe in free will? How if at all do you think about probabilistic outcomes in your non-baseball life?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

It's complicated.

12:21

I don't believe in free will in the context that our choices are determined by our internal programming, whether created from nature or nurture

12:22

but I still believe in moral responsibility, which isn't necessarily compatible with that

Austin Hedges

12:23

I'm running a 57 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR. The team is 51-33 when I start and 25-32 when I don't. Does WAR undervalue me?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I honestly don't think so. Getting above replacement with *that* line is a lot of defensive credit!

Team start/don't start really doesn't work in any predictive sense

A Boy Named Yu

12:24

On a contender, is Christopher Morel a starter, a Zobristian regular, or a nice utility piece?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Valuable role player, I think

Kwanbelievable

12:24

Do the 2022 playoff odds take into account the new tiebreaking scenarios?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I believe so. ZiPS does.

Guest

12:24

Keeper league, is Bellinger just cooked and not worth protecting NL Scoresheet 10 team League (13 slots)

Dan Szymborski

12:24

In a 10-team league, I'm certain he's cooked.

12:25

Replacement level in a 10-teamer is really high

TomBruno23

12:25

Oh boy...a big time chat to get me through Thursday...what do I tell my friend, let's call him Bodie, when he gets agitated about people saying Molina will be a HOF enshrinee one day? Bodie is particularly upset that Molina seems to be a foregone conclusion while someone such as Joe Mauer perhaps is not.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think both should be in.

cool

1

12:26

If keeping Mauer out is an injustice, should Molina really be subjected to a similar injustice because of bad voters?

We should induct as many deserving people as we can and then fight for induction of the ones who don't get in!

12:27

We can still be happy that Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar were honored even if Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker have been horribly snubbed.

Morbo

12:27

Hey Dan, how's it going?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Fine!

A Boy Named Yu

12:27

Do you have a smoker or knowledge of smokers? My situation really only allows the possibility of an electric smoker but I've heard it's not as good as a charcoal one.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'm not a particular expert here.

12:28

I have an electric smoker too, because it's convenient. I'm good at getting good results, but charcoal ones are obviously superior

M's Fan

12:28

Has Julio's future projections gone up? How bad has Kelenic's gotten?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

They're about the same. I did an article on him when he signed and that had projections!

M's Fan

12:28

Is Julio's season a 90th percentile outcome? Higher, lower?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

certainly lower percentile than that

12:30

I mean look at his preseason ZiPS projection with depth chart playing time!

12:31

He's basically having ZiPS AVERAGE result! LOL

Liz

12:32

Which race (milestone, stats, division/postseason, etc) are you personally most interested in?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I totally want Judge to hit 61 and I'm not even a Yankee fan

Lance Biggerstaff

12:32

Have the Braves tried turning Ronald Acuna off and then back on again?

AA

12:32

Vaughn Grissom contract extension projection?

Appa Yip Yip

12:32

Is the AL 3rd wild card more appealing this year than the 2nd wild card? The central is not good.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Depressing, but yes.

All seeds should be record-based

Insert Witty Name Here

12:33

I’m quitting my job in a week and haven’t told them yet. In the meantime, I’m here at DanChat. If the day ever comes that you left Fangraphs, and you wrote one last article on any topic you so desire, what would our last memory of you at Fangraphs be about?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

April.

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