JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

Now, they didn't project four wins, but all the projection systems had him at 2-3 wins this year

Bellinger and Yelich

12:46

Any pair of MVPs fall off this much this fast who weren't in their mid-30s at the start of it? Yelich is still able to get on base of course, but still.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I did a piece on sorta this!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-bellinger-tolls-for-the-2019-nl-mvp/

12:48

I'm a little annoyed that he became quite mediocre just when I finally stopped occasionally calling him Clay

12:49

Sharps

12:49

is there an easy way to compare the actual wins of a team versus their WAR "wins" (the total war of players + the 47.7) to see how much variance there is?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Adding? I'm not quite sure what you're getting at

Appa Yip Yip

12:50

Imagine you're a big league caliber pitcher on the mound facing Pujols. He's at 699. Do you hang one (1) slider before getting down to business?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

No way

You respect another athlete by giving them your best effort to beat them.

TomBruno23

12:50

I agree with you re HOF, let them all in. I see 5 HOFers on this year's Cardinal team with Lars Nootbaar having an outside shot.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Not everyone's going to agree with me on the Pujols hanging slider, though.

12:52

I'm extraordinarily competitive. I grew up in a family that always gave me their best as a kid; my grandfather never went easy on me in chess and my dad never pretended that three-year-old Danny beat him at arm wrestling

12:53

I was livid in little league games at mercy rule games, on either winning or losing side

Morbo

12:53

Re: freewill. I'm not fully convinced that humans are fully sapient as the term is generally understood. I think to many of our everyday responses are automatic in the sense they they are conditioned responses to external stimuli. This includes a lot of social interaction with others (especially small talk). I would say that most people are capable of sentience and thought but that it represents an atypical state. And, the majority of people spend the majority of their time in a more reactionary state

Appa Yip Yip

12:53

Did Bichette actually make a meaningful change to kick off this torrid stretch, or is it just baseball and he's hot right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Baseball gonna baseball

Dave

12:54

So you’re telling me that the projections expected Julio to be this good. God damn, Julio is insane

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I love what he's doing anyway, but I can't say I don't also love that he made me not look stupid

I can't put my thumb on the scale

so if ZiPS says something that loosk crazy, I have no recourse but to be smarter and do better!

A Boy Named Yu

12:54

Any thoughts on Kia vehicles? Trying to decide between a Toyota Sienna and a Kia Carnival for the family and I don't know much about Kias.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Kia/Hyundai have gotten much better in the last 15 years. Now, the problems seem to be recent issues a CVT in a few cars

and a lot of the complaints now is about the dealer experience rather than the vehicles themselves

12:57

The Everyday Driver guys did the Kia Carnival

and savage geese did the Sienna

12:57

Time for NYY to finally exhale?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

They should

jas

12:58

Who you got for the MVPs?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I would vote for Judge in the AL

the NL is really tight between Arenado and Goldschmidt for me.

12:59

I may use 3B to break the tie as I think that based on the historical deviations between good and bad 3B defensively, generalized position adjustments possibly shortchange 3B by a run or two

Mike Rizzo

12:59

How great a job did I do trading Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

For having to trade Soto, the return was quite soldi

Dave

1:00

What’s the worst team that could have won the AL Central this year?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Probably the O's based on current roster strength