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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/26

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Sully

12:38

Cam Smith: more likely to break out next season or a case of raw skills not translating into actual production?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I think there's breakout potential, but I think people overrate it

oaktownblues

12:38

If you were hired as the A's GM this offseason, what's your plan to fix the pitching? Try to entice FAs? Trade from the position players? Just overhaul pitching dev and hope for the best?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Honestly, they're still in a place of throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks

br0wnpants

12:39

Is JRod's rookie year gonna end up being his best batting line in his career?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

It COULD be -- and people underrate how often this happens -- but I think he has enough years left that he could have a crazy yea ror two in there

richwp01

12:39

ZiPS Rollouts...how does ZiPS handle long lay-offs and unknown timelines. (It seems that pitchers not knowing when to ramp up and shortened "spring trainings" impact pitchers more than hitters. Mostly based on Covid and last CBA negotiations).

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Poorly! lol

12:40

ZiPS knows about layoffs and has a general idea about injuries, but there are a lot of unknowns

and honestly, that same question applies to non-projection based projections

I'm not sure if the second sentence makes sense. But not everyhing needs to!

mbushskbum

12:40

ZIPS sooner rather than later

triplesandtea

12:40

HAVE YOU CONSIDERED NOT EATING QUESTIONS SMART DAN?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

They're zero calories unless you're eating loaded questions

Bud Smith

12:40

Update on the senior cat who kept just missing the litter box (giving a new meaning to the "waste zone"): I rotated the litterbox 180 degrees in the exact same location and now the problem is solved. Cats, man.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Geez

12:41

is there a difference? Is there an exit that got rotated in the box?

Or is it just one of the many cases of a cat being randomly obnoxious?

Like Justinian doesn't like salmon, but now if he smells the salmon fancy feast, he won't just not eat, he'll run away and HIDE for an hour

Marc Kartman

12:41

This is apropos of nothing, but as the real questions are apparently few, I was watching the recent Brewers-Reds series and I've never seen a middle infielder talk to baserunners (and the second base umpire if the bases were empty) as much as Elly de la Cruz. I mean at one point he walked over to first to chat with Cooper Pratt, then continued the conversation when Pratt reached second, then walked all the way over to third to keep it up when Pratt advanced. Crazy entertaining. He needs to be mic'ed up.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

If mic'ed up he might be less talkative

get a lip reader!

mbushskbum

12:42

Elly de la Cruz is certainly on a real heater. Sad to say that the Reds will have to look at trading him for a haul in 2028. He was quoted as saying LA is my town. I love Elly, so explosive and fun. I hate the Dodgers though but it makes too much sense

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Yup, they're going to trade him

fincampbell05

12:42

Roman Anthony since he came back has a .326 BABIP, a 15% barrel rate, and 11% swinging strike rate, a 24% chase rate, and a low but passable 61% zone-swing rate. Somehow, he's turning that into a 104 wRC+. Just bad sequencing of whiffs and takes, right? The 8% walk rate and 31% strikeout rate aren't supported by this data.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I think he'll be OK long runs

dodgersfansteve

12:42

Dan, sorry to be so dense, but how is xERA calculated? Seems like voodoo math to me, based on perceived defensive strengths? there are huge gaps for some pitchers between actual ERA and xERA.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It's basically just xwOBA, which is pitch-by-pitch exit velocity and launch angle and in grounders, sprint speed

mlommler

12:43

Here's a PCA question that ZiPS is built for: how much does this season change his projections going forward? Probably not a TON given the floor was high to begin with, but what a season!

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Oh, very much so!

I mean, ZiPS loved him plenty at the start of the year

12:44

He was sixth in five-year WAR among htiters coming into the season

now he's #1

soddingjunkmail

12:44

If the elegies are too labor intensive to do each team, perhaps an abbreviated version grouped by division. I think quite a few fangraphs readers/subscribers like to play armchair GM, and (a) find your take on the best path forward interesting, and (b) use it as a jumping off point to discuss with others in the comments. Thx for considering.