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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:59

because man hit ball hard go far is a good thing

1:00

and he's a lot more likable than Kingman

Multiphasic

1:00

A proper colonoscopy should have answers coming out of your butt, FWIW.

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Answers without questions are just soliloquys

soliloquies?

mlommler

1:00

What would happen if the Miz magically learned great feel for a knuckleball that he threw with his standard arm speed?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

He'd easily be the most fun player in MLB the Show!

dodgersfansteve

1:00

Wow, Elly in Los Angeles? He'd own the town. He makes the outgoing and effervescent Teo Hernandez look like Rain Man.

mlommler

1:00

I'm now imagining the Denzel Clarke play but it's Kyle Schwarber and it makes me happy

Person

1:00

good idea/bad idea: good idea: sending a question. bad idea: sending a question before reading the whole chat

o/u 1 Cam Smith season of a 2026 Jordan Walker caliber by the end of the decade?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

We're not here to judge!

Maybe 40%?

Multiphasic

1:01

Cololliloquies.

dodgersfansteve

1:01

A barrel cactus is more likeable than Kingman.

drplantwrench

1:01

barrel cacti are beautiful though, so not a fair comparison

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Now THIS sounds like a job for AI

Person

1:02

Cam-Smith-a-palooza. how is he looking compared to a Carrigg Bolte or Heriberto next year

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I think I rather prefer all three

dodgersfansteve

1:02

Thsy a typo. I meant to type " timber wolf."

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Multiphasic

1:06

Seems like Gunnar's season ended up in a bit of an overreaction-to-skills-decline death spiral, where he seems to have tried to become a different hitter and turned out to not be particularly good at being that guy. Is this a good read? Is this kind of thing more fixable over the offseason than regular season, or is it just up to player idiosyncracy how/if they pull out of it?

(I think of it a little bit like getting turned down at a bar a couple times in a row so deciding to become a Hat Guy. Is it easier to stop being a Hat Guy again if you just embrace going to movies by yourself for a bit?)

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I actually think there's a lot of truth in what you say

I don't know what coaching staff is telling him, but one of the important jobs of a coach is to arrest these kinds of death spirals

avoid the galloping gertie effect

PC1970

1:07

Tigers need to sweep White Sox this weekend to make it interesting for them, right? If they do, it'll be a wild week next week in the AL.

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Yes

I actually run the numbers for someone's reddit post a few days ago

1:08

Nobody asked, but I had 20 minutes to goof around while waiting for something else, so I fired up the ZiPS season simulator. ZiPS has the Tigers with 1.0% playoff odds as of the afternoon. If the Tigers sweep the series against the Jays and White Sox, then they have a 29.8% chance of making the playoffs. If the Tigers win three-of-four against the White Sox and two-of-three against the Tigers, the playoff odds only go up to 2.2%.
If, however, the Tigers go 1-3 against the White Sox and 1-2 against the Jays, the probability goes under 0.05%, and rounds to zero since I express the probabilities with the one decimal place. In other words, it's *really* sensitive to a few wins at this point, which is, of course, not unexpected.

oops, i meant two-of-three against hte Jays

but they really needed to sweep all seven

I think sweeping the White Sox is a must

1:09

And on that note it's time for me to depart

thanks for coming all!

And if you have ideas for stuff that *you* want to see that we're not doing, please speak up!

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